The forecast through July indicates that conditions from the westernmost point of the Ottawa River stretching east to the Gulf of St. Lawrence will transition out of exceptional water surplus to milder anomalies, while conditions around Montreal and near Ottawa transition to moderate surplus, and surpluses from Toronto to Lake Huron increase and intensify. Deficits will cover much of the nation, with intense deficits on Vancouver Island and surpluses in southeastern British Columbia.
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The forecast through October indicates some retreat of exceptional water deficits, especially in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba where deficits are expected to downgrade, becoming mild to moderate. Deficits will shrink in British Columbia around Prince George, though remain exceptional; will downgrade somewhat in Alberta and along Ontario’s eastern border; and will shrink in Quebec but remain widespread. Exceptional surpluses in southern BC will diminish.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to decrease, though vast blocks will persist. These areas include: Quebec from the Caniapiscau Reservoir to the St. Lawrence River; surrounding Lake Mistassini, QC; Ontario’s eastern border; northeastern Manitoba; the Lower Athabasca River region in Alberta; surrounding Prince George, British Columbia; and, northwestern BC. Intense surpluses will persist from northwestern Saskatchewan reaching west to Fort McMurray, Alberta, and in southeastern BC.
Exceptional water deficits are expected to decrease but will persist in many areas, including along Ontario’s eastern border. Surpluses are expected northwest of Toronto, and moderate deficits from Peterborough to Ottawa. In Quebec, deficits will be extreme around Sherbrooke. Severe deficits are forecast for southern Manitoba. Deficits will be intense in the Upper Athabasca and Lower Peace River Regions of Alberta, and surrounding Prince George, BC. Surpluses will increase in southern BC and will be exceptional around Kamloops and Kelowna.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from March 2018 through February 2019 include: southern Mexico, northern Brazil, North Africa, Europe, Afghanistan, and Southeast China. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Montana and Idaho (US), Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Spain, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 June 2018.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from January 2018 through December 2018 include: the US Southwest, Brazil, southern Venezuela, northern Africa, Gabon, Zambia, Finland, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho, southern British Columbia, Tanzania, Hungary, southern Romania, and Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 April 2018.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from December 2017 through November 2018 include: the US West, Southwest, and South Atlantic States; southern Venezuela; Uruguay; northeastern Argentina; Finland; northern Africa and Gabon; and southern Iraq. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the Ohio River Valley and western Montana (US); Paraguay; Tanzania and Ethiopia; Ireland; Central and Eastern Europe; and European Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 March 2018.
Widespread severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast through September in much of Quebec, along its border into Ontario, around Hudson Bay in Manitoba, and in central and northwestern regions of Alberta and British Columbia. Large pockets of exceptional surpluses are expected to persist through June in southeastern British Columbia, northwestern Saskatchewan into Alberta, and in central Manitoba. These surpluses are expected to diminish after June.
The outlook for Canada indicates widespread water deficits of varying severity across the country with pockets of exceptional deficits in parts of British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Newfoundland.
The outlook for Canada April through June indicates widespread water deficits of varying severity with pockets of exceptional deficits expected in parts of British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Newfoundland. From July through September conditions are expected to improve somewhat, as larger pockets of exceptional deficits shrink. However deficits will persist across the country.