South Asia: Water deficits persist in central India but surplus forecast after April
28 February 2018
THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast indicates intense water deficits in western Afghanistan, and in parts of northern, southern, and far northeastern India.
Surplus conditions are forecast for Bangladesh and Indian states to the east and west, as well as along India’s west coast from eastern Gujarat through Maharashtra. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in western Andhra Pradesh.
Deficits are forecast in Sri Lanka’s northern half, and surpluses along the southern coast. Mild surpluses are expected in western Nepal with exceptional surplus along the Gandaki River. Moderate deficits are forecast for Bhutan.
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions.
As is apparent in the map progression above, the forecast for India indicates the persistence of intense water deficits in central and parts of southern India through April 2018. After April a dramatic transition to surplus conditions is forecast for a wide belt stretching coast to coast across the country’s middle.
In the next several months, through April, deficits will blanket much of the southern two-thirds of India, punctuated by pockets of both deficit and surplus conditions (pink/purple) as transitions occur. Deficits are expected to be extreme or even exceptional in Madhya Pradesh, western Chhattisgarh, western Karnataka, and eastern Andhra Pradesh. Primarily moderate deficits will emerge in a vast stretch from the Bay of Bengal inland, encompassing Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and southern Tamil Nadu. Deficits in northern Sri Lanka will downgrade to moderate. Gujarat, in western India, will see conditions of both deficit and surplus, as will the western stretch of the Krishna River and much of the Penner River Basin.
Exceptional surplus conditions will persist throughout Bangladesh and India states to the east, as well as in eastern Jammu and Kashmir in India’s far north. Severe to exceptional surpluses remain in the forecast for West Bengal, and throughout Nepal.
From May through July a transition from widespread deficit to surplus is forecast for a vast belt across India’s middle, stretching from eastern Gujarat on the Arabian Sea to West Bengal on the opposite coast. Surpluses are expected to be moderate to severe with a block of exceptional surplus in Maharashtra between the Godavari and Tapi Rivers. Surpluses will emerge along the Godivari and Krishna Rivers, and exceptional surpluses will re-emerge in western Andhra Pradesh. Intense deficits are forecast to emerge in India’s far northeastern states.
Conditions in Bangladesh will transition from exceptional surplus to near-normal, surpluses will persist in western Nepal, and moderate deficits will emerge in Bhutan. Deficits will persist throughout most of Afghanistan and will intensify in the southwest, becoming exceptional. Moderate deficits will emerge in northern Pakistan.
The forecast for the final period – August through October 2018 – indicates a downgrade to mild surplus across central India, and a pattern of deficits in Afghanistan similar to the forecast in the prior three months.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
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