The forecast for April 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of January 2024 through December 2024 in South America, northeastern Africa, and the Middle East. Areas expected to experience surplus include eastern to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern regions of China, but lessen in size in northern and northeastern China. Surpluses occurring in Tibet are also expected to remain but diminish in size.
The forecast indicates that deficits will persist throughout Mainland Southeast Asia, but decrease in intensity, becoming mostly moderate to severe anomalies. Intense surplus is expected to expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia, particularly in central Indonesia, Papua, and Papua New Guinea.
The forecast indicates that most exceptional deficits in Pakistan and Afghanistan will dissipate, though some regions are expected to experience lingering deficits. India is expected to observe widespread surplus throughout the country.
The forecast indicates that widespread exceptional deficits in western Russia will mostly subside, though similarly intense deficits will emerge in southeastern Russia. Surpluses are expected to dissipate in east-central Russia in areas near Lake Baikal, with surpluses of equal intensity emerging in southwestern Russia and northern Uzbekistan.
The Outlook for December 2019 indicates that conditions throughout India will be much wetter than normal and will include exceptional anomalies. Temperatures along India’s east coast will be warmer than normal, as will temperatures in much of Indonesia. Central Africa is forecast to be cooler than normal.
The forecast through July indicates exceptional water deficits in coastal Maharashtra, and severe to extreme deficits in a vast stretch across central India including much of Madya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and southern Odisha. In the south, deficits will downgrade in Tamil Nadu but intensify in Karnataka. Surpluses will remain intense and widespread across central Afghanistan. Exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Pakistan.
Through February, exceptional water deficits are forecast in India from Gujarat through Maharashtra and Karnataka, and deficits of varying severity in many regions south of the Gangetic Plain and to the west in Rajasthan. In Pakistan, isolated intense deficits are possible in Karachi. Moderate deficits are forecast in northern Afghanistan, but conditions may be intense northeast of Kabul and along the Harirud River in the west. In Bangladesh, exceptional surpluses are forecast in Chittagong.
Through October, exceptional water deficits will dominate Afghanistan’s west and northwest. In India, moderate deficits will cover much of the southern two-thirds of the country with more intense deficits in western Telangana, Karnataka, southeastern Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and central Chhattisgarh. Surpluses will downgrade but remain intense in Bangladesh, and will shrink and moderate in Nepal, though remaining exceptional along the Gandaki River.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from May 2018 through April 2019 include: the US Pacific Northwest, southern Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Central and Northern Europe, northern Africa, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Tanzania, Kenya, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, and Sichuan, China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 9 August 2018.
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