The forecast through June indicates that intense water deficits will emerge throughout much of India south and west of the Gangetic Plain. Intense surpluses are forecast in northern India, northern Pakistan, and much of Afghanistan. Anomalies will reach exceptional intensity in many of these regions. Deficits will emerge in southern Afghanistan and will be severe in the southwest. Surpluses are forecast in Nepal, Bangladesh along the Padma River and in the northeast, and nearby regions of India.
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The forecast through April indicates that, while exceptional water deficits in Gujarat and in the south will downgrade, widespread deficits of varying intensity are forecast in western and southern India. Surpluses will re-emerge in Uttar Pradesh in the western Gangetic Plain. Other regions with surpluses include Mizoram (India), Bangladesh, Nepal, rivers in northern Pakistan, and around Kabul, Afghanistan.
The forecast through March indicates intense water deficits in western and southern India with exceptional deficits in Gujarat and Karnataka. Surpluses are forecast for Uttar Pradesh into western Nepal, and in Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Jammu and Kashmir. Exceptional deficits are forecast in southeastern Pakistan, moderate deficits in the southwest, and surpluses in the northeast. Surpluses are expected in Bangladesh and will be exceptional in Chittagong Division reaching into Mizoram, India.
Through February, exceptional water deficits are forecast in India from Gujarat through Maharashtra and Karnataka, and deficits of varying severity in many regions south of the Gangetic Plain and to the west in Rajasthan. In Pakistan, isolated intense deficits are possible in Karachi. Moderate deficits are forecast in northern Afghanistan, but conditions may be intense northeast of Kabul and along the Harirud River in the west. In Bangladesh, exceptional surpluses are forecast in Chittagong.
The September Outlook indicates that intense heat anomalies which have dominated Central Europe for the past month are expected to moderate overall. Exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures will prevail in Madagascar. Much drier than normal conditions are forecast in India along its southern Arabian Sea coast and also in Ethiopia's central Highlands.
Through October, exceptional water deficits will dominate Afghanistan’s west and northwest. In India, moderate deficits will cover much of the southern two-thirds of the country with more intense deficits in western Telangana, Karnataka, southeastern Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and central Chhattisgarh. Surpluses will downgrade but remain intense in Bangladesh, and will shrink and moderate in Nepal, though remaining exceptional along the Gandaki River.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from May 2018 through April 2019 include: the US Pacific Northwest, southern Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Central and Northern Europe, northern Africa, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Tanzania, Kenya, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, and Sichuan, China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 9 August 2018.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist in Afghanistan, retreating slightly in the north but increasing in the south. Pakistan should get a reprieve as intense deficits diminish considerably, leaving moderate to severe conditions in western Baluchistan. India will transition out of widespread deficit to milder conditions, with moderate deficits in the south and more severe deficits in the Far Northeast, particularly Assam. Surpluses will downgrade to moderate in West Bengal, and will shrink and downgrade in Bangladesh while remaining fairly intense, especially in Dhaka Division.
Exceptional water deficits will remain widespread in Afghanistan, while decreasing slightly. Deficits in Pakistan will generally moderate. India will transition from widespread water deficits to milder conditions. However, exceptional deficits are forecast surrounding Chandigarh, moderate deficits in Rajasthan, and intense deficits in the Far Northeast. Surpluses are expected in Jammu and Kashmir, northern Odisha, West Bengal, and along the Tapi River. Intense surpluses are forecast for the Gandaki River in Nepal. Moderate to extreme surpluses are forecast for northern Bangladesh.
India will transition out of widespread water deficit except in Madhya Pradesh where exceptional deficit is forecast through June. Surplus is forecast in western Andhra Pradesh, India’s southern tip, Odisha, Gujarat, the far north, the Ganges watershed, the Narmada River, central Nepal, and Bangladesh. Intense deficits will continue to emerge in Afghanistan, but diminish in Pakistan except for Karachi where conditions will be exceptional. After June, intense deficits will persist in Afghanistan while anomalies elsewhere in South Asia are expected to be relatively modest.