Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast for Yucatan
28 February 2019
THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending October 2019 indicates moderate to severe water deficits in the Baja and Yucatan Peninsulas of Mexico, and moderate deficits in Chihuahua and small pockets peppered throughout the south. Severe surpluses are forecast in northern Coahuila and surpluses of lesser intensity along its border with Durango and in Zacatecas.
In Central America, moderate deficits are forecast in central Guatemala, El Salvador, and in western Honduras along the Ulúa River. Some pockets of surplus are forecast for Nicaragua, eastern Honduras, and southern Guatemala, and intense deficits are forecast for western Panama. Primarily moderate deficits are expected in Haiti, Dominican Republic, and western and eastern Cuba.
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.
The forecast through April indicates that surpluses in northern Coahuila, Mexico will downgrade slightly but remain intense, and intense surpluses will persist along Sinaloa’s northern coast on the Gulf of California. Surpluses will also persist along a diagonal from Zacatecas through Mexico City into northern Oaxaca, broken by a pocket of exceptional deficits in southern Puebla.
Moderate to extreme deficits are expected in the northern Yucatan Peninsula and in Nayarit on the Pacific Coast. Moderate deficits are forecast in southern Chihuahua and well into northern Durango and in pockets of Baja. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in scattered small pockets throughout the southern states.
Much of Central America will transition out of surplus, with conditions of both deficit and surplus (purple) forecast. Intense deficits are forecast for western Panama. Deficits in Cuba and Hispaniola will downgrade considerably, becoming primarily mild, but moderate deficits will emerge in eastern Jamaica.
From May through July, anomalies in southern Mexico and Central America will downgrade and diminish, with mild to moderate deficits forecast. Deficits will intensify on the Baja Peninsula, becoming severe and reaching across the Gulf of California to Hermosillo, Sonora, with moderate deficits in pockets of northwestern Mexico. Primarily moderate surpluses will emerge in Monterey, Tamaulipas, and central San Luis Potosí, and will linger in northern Coahuila and Zacatecas. Moderate surpluses will also emerge in northwestern Costa Rica. Mild deficits are forecast in the Caribbean.
For the final three months – August through October – surpluses in Mexico will diminish, deficits will intensify in Baja, and moderate to severe deficits will emerge in the Yucatan, southern Mexico, and most of northern Central America. Surpluses will emerge in eastern Nicaragua.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
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