Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook June 2019

4 June 2019

OVERVIEW
Exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in the June Outlook for much of India. Wetter than normal conditions are expected in central Iran and northern Afghanistan.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
In central Iran, wetter than normal conditions are forecast, including exceptional anomalies in Yazd Province and northern Fars Province and anomalies of decreasing intensity radiating well into surrounding provinces. Similar conditions are forecast for northeastern Iran. Some isolated pockets of wet anomalies are expected in eastern Iraq north of Baghdad, north of Kirkuk, and around the Gharraf Canal in the south. Anomalies elsewhere in the Middle East will be relatively mild, with some wetter than normal pockets in central Georgia, west-central Saudi Arabia, and western Yemen.

Likewise, several Central American countries are likely to see wetter than normal conditions. Moderate to exceptional wet anomalies are forecast for eastern Turkmenistan, central and eastern Uzbekistan, pockets of southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Conditions in Afghanistan’s northern half will be exceptional, and pockets of wet anomalies are expected in the south.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

In South Asia, much of India will be moderately drier than normal, with severe anomalies on the northern Arabian coast, in the far north, the Gangetic Plain into western Nepal, and in southern Bangladesh. Conditions may be more intense in India’s Far Northeast. Some moderate to severe wet anomalies are forecast for southernmost India and southern Sri Lanka.

Western and northern Myanmar will be drier than normal but relatively normal conditions are forecast for Southeast Asia. Moderate wet anomalies are forecast for northern Sumatra, moderate dry anomalies in the south and in Borneo, Indonesia. Java will be extremely drier than normal.

In East Asia, China’s south and southeastern provinces will be wetter than the norm, with primarily moderate to extreme anomalies. Moderate dry anomalies are forecast for southern Shaanxi in the center of the country, trailing north through western Inner Mongolia and western Mongolia. More intense dry anomalies are expected in western Tibet, and wet anomalies in western China near Tajikistan. Kyushu, Japan will be moderately wetter than normal.

Some scattered wet anomalies are forecast across northern Australia around the Gulf of Carpentaria and into northern Queensland at the base of the Cape York Peninsula.

Many parts of the African continent will see wetter than normal conditions including Algeria, Liberia, northern Mali, eastern Niger, Chad, Sudan and South Sudan, the Horn of Africa, Gabon, Republic of the Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, western Kenya, and pockets of western Tanzania. Anomalies will be intense along the border of Algeria and Libya, Somalia’s northern tip, southwestern Kenya into Tanzania, and cutting a path across DRC’s midsection. Some scattered dry anomalies are forecast for eastern Kenya and eastern Tanzania, southern Zimbabwe and northern South Africa.

Relatively normal conditions are forecast for Europe, though the Balkans will be moderately wetter than normal and mild wet anomalies are forecast for eastern Ukraine.

In South America, primarily moderate dry anomalies are forecast scattered in relatively small pockets of eastern Brazil and tracing a path through Pacific nations following the Andes from Columbia through northern Chile and into northwestern Argentina. Pockets of the western Amazon Basin in Brazil will be moderately wetter than normal.

Moving north, relatively normal conditions are expected in Central America. In the Caribbean, Haiti will be drier than the norm while neighboring Dominican Republic will be wetter. Primarily moderate to severe wet anomalies are forecast for Chiapas in southern Mexico and in the north central states. Moderate dry anomalies will trail along central Mexico’s Pacific Coast.

The U.S. Southwest will be somewhat wetter than normal, with moderate to severe anomalies in New Mexico and western Texas as well as Oklahoma and Colorado. The Southeast will be wetter as well, including northern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. In California’s San Joaquin Valley, some moderate wet anomalies are expected east of Fresno and moderate dry anomalies to the west. Michigan’s Upper Peninsula is expected to be moderately drier than the norm and these conditions will extend across the border into central Northern Ontario, Canada.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
The forecast for South Asia includes exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures for much of India, to the north in western Nepal, to the south in Sri Lanka, and to the west in western and southern Pakistan. Afghanistan will likely see cooler than normal conditions radiating from the center of the country.

Severe to exceptional warm anomalies are forecast for Myanmar, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Papua New Guinea. Conditions in Southeast Asia will also be warmer than the norm, but somewhat less intense, ranging from moderate to exceptional. China, too, can expect warm anomalies reaching exceptional intensity in a vast swath from Henan in the east to the Taklimakan desert in the west. Honshu, Japan will be moderately warmer than normal.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Russia’s eastern half will be warmer than normal, with moderate to exceptional anomalies; European Russia is expected to be moderately warmer than the norm. In Central Asia, moderate warm anomalies are forecast for western regions of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, while Kyrgyzstan and far eastern Uzbek regions will be cooler than normal.

The Middle East can expect intense warm anomalies in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, southern Iraq and west of the Euphrates, western Yemen, and around the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Warm anomalies will be mild to moderate in the eastern Mediterranean, with some cool anomalies in Cyprus. Eastern Turkey and Georgia can expect severe to extreme warm anomalies, though conditions may be cooler along Turkey’s Black Sea coast.

In Africa, warm anomalies reaching exceptional intensity are forecast in large pockets across the southern Sahara, including Mauritania, eastern Niger, southern Egypt, and northern Sudan. Warm anomalies will also be fairly intense in the Ethiopian Highlands, southern Kenya, northeastern Madagascar, pockets of northeastern South Africa and Eastern and Northern Cape. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast in West Africa and around the Gulf of Guinea. South Sudan and central Democratic Republic of the Congo will be much cooler than normal, and cool anomalies of lesser intensity are forecast for the northern tip of Somalia, northernmost Mozambique, and southwestern Tanzania.

Moderately warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for many parts of Europe, particularly Central Europe and European Russia. Anomalies could reach severe intensity in western Germany. Southern Greece will be moderately cooler than the norm.

In South America, exceptional warm anomalies are expected through the Andes into northern Chile, in southern Venezuela, and Brazil’s easternmost tip. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast for most of the continent’s northern breadth, with severe anomalies in the northern and eastern Amazon Basin.

Exceptionally warmer temperatures are forecast for Panama and Costa Rica, and severe to extreme anomalies in Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. Severe warm anomalies are also forecast for Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and Chiapas State in the south, and paths through western Durango and the central Pacific Coast. Moderately warmer conditions are expected in northern Baja, extending across the Gulf of Mexico, and southern Chihuahua into Coahuila in the central north.

Much of the U.S. will see relatively normal temperatures, though a pocket in northeastern Louisiana is expected to be exceptionally warmer than normal and nearly all of Alaska will be moderately warmer, with some more intense areas. Moderately warmer conditions are forecast for southern Arizona, the Upper Midwest, Florida, and Maine. A few pockets of somewhat cooler than normal conditions are forecast in Texas, Colorado, and New Mexico.

In Canada, moderately warmer temperatures are forecast for Northern Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, pockets of Alberta and northern British Columbia, and Yukon. Warm anomalies will be more intense in central Manitoba and in northern Nunavut.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released June 3, 2019 which includes forecasts for June 2019 through February 2020 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued May 25 through May 31, 2019.

Technical details:

  • Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:

    • Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.

    • Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.

    • Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).

  • The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.

  • Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.

  • Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.

  • Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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