The forecast through November indicates that normal water conditions will return to much of Mexico but intense deficits will persist around the Gulf of Campeche. Extreme deficits are expected in southern Belize, moderate surpluses in Costa Rica, and intense surpluses in the Bahamas and central Cuba.
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Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from May 2019 through April 2020 include: Canada, French Guiana, Chile, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Libya, Uzbekistan, and New Caledonia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the United States, Syria, southern Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and southeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 August 2019
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that Mexico will transition to nearly normal water conditions in the north with some deficits in Baja and persistent surpluses in northern Coahuila. A small pocket of severe deficit is forecast for northern Puebla State. Moderate deficits are expected in pockets of northern Central America, and surpluses in pockets of the south. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Haiti.
Much warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in the June Outlook for much of India, China, and Indonesia. Wetter than normal conditions are expected in central Iran and northern Afghanistan.
The forecast through June indicates water deficits in Baja, Mexico, coastal Sonora, southern Chihuahua, the Pacific Coast from southern Sinaloa through Chiapas, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Areas of surplus include Coahuila, the southern border of Chihuahua and Sonora, and pockets in the center of the country. Some moderate deficits are expected Central America, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.
The forecast through May indicates a patchwork of water anomalies. In Mexico, moderate to extreme deficits are forecast in Nayarit, Guerrero, Chiapas, and Yucatan. Conditions of both deficit and surplus are forecast from southern Durango southeast through Morelos. Regions forecast with surpluses include northern Coahuila, Nuevo León, southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosí, Distrito Federal, and northern Oaxaca into central Veracruz. Exceptional deficits are expected in western Panama, and moderate deficits in Dominican Republic.
For the next three months, water surpluses are forecast in Mexico for northern Coahuila, along Sinaloa’s northern coast, and from southern Durango through Mexico City. Deficits are expected in the northern Yucatan and scattered small pockets throughout the south. Deficits along the Rio Grande in Chihuahua will moderate. Deficits in Cuba and Hispaniola will become mild, but intense deficits will emerge in eastern Jamaica.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast for Jamaica; surpluses in Coahuila MX & Nicaragua
For the next three months, water surpluses will persist in northern Coahuila, Mexico, and along a diagonal from southern Durango through Mexico City, broken by a pocket of exceptional deficits in southern Puebla, and continuing into northern Oaxaca. Intense surpluses are forecast in Nicaragua. Areas of deficit include: the Rio Grande in Chihuahua, northern Yucatan, western Panama, Jamaica, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.
Though water deficits in the region are expected to diminish and downgrade, the forecast through November indicates severe to exceptional deficits for Mexico’s northern Baja Peninsula and in states along the southern Gulf and across to the Pacific. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for northern Central America and surpluses are expected in Costa Rica. Extreme deficits are forecast eastern Jamaica.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Intense water deficits forecast for southern Mexico & Jamaica
The near-term forecast indicates significant water deficits for southern Mexico which may be exceptional in Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Campeche. Surpluses will emerge in Sonora. Deficits are also forecast for northern Central America, with surpluses in the southern nations. Deficits will spread and intensify somewhat in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and downgrade to mild in western Cuba. Jamaica will transition to extreme deficit.