Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook July 2019

3 July 2019

OVERVIEW
The July Outlook indicates exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures for southern Alaska and Southeast China, among other places. Much wetter than normal conditions are forecast for western Iran and in a band across Republic of the Congo and Democratic Republic of the Congo.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
In Africa, as noted above, some central African nations can expect wetter than normal conditions, including Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Republic of the Congo (ROC), and Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and anomalies will be exceptional across the center of ROC and DRC. Wet anomalies are also forecast for Uganda, northwestern Kenya, and southwestern Tanzania, as well as north-central Niger and parts of Chad. Some pockets of severe to extreme dry anomalies are forecast in northern Ethiopia.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Europe can expect some moderately drier than normal conditions in northern France, Belgium, northern Germany, west-central Poland, and around Oslo, Norway, with a few severe pockets in Belgium and Germany. Moderate wet anomalies are forecast for western Norway.

Conditions in western Iran will be much wetter than normal and will include exceptional anomalies around the Caspian Sea. A few pockets of Iraq will also be wetter than normal, near Kirkuk and north of Baghdad. Elsewhere in the Middle East, moderate dry anomalies are expected north of Ankara, Turkey, and moderate to severe dry anomalies in southeastern Saudi Arabia. Western Yemen, including Sanaa, will be moderately drier than normal.

Moderately wetter than normal conditions are forecast for western Tajikistan including Dushanbe, and moderately drier than normal conditions in Russia’s Western Siberian Plain and in easternmost Russia.

India’s western coast will be wetter than normal with exceptional anomalies east of Pune, Maharashtra, and less intense conditions leading east into the center of the country past Hyderabad. India’s southern tip in Tamil Nadu will be drier than normal.

Moderate dry anomalies are forecast for the central bulk of the Korean Peninsula but could reach severe intensity north of Seoul. Moderate dry anomalies are also forecast for southern Shanxi, China, and the Shandong Peninsula. Some moderate wet anomalies are expected in Fujian and southern Taiwan. Japan’s islands of Kyusu, Shikoku, and eastern Honshu will be moderately wetter than the norm. Moderate to severe dry anomalies are forecast for Singapore, Borneo, southern Sumatra, and Java. Western central Australia will be moderately drier than the norm.

In the U.S., western Alaska is expected to be drier than normal, while wetter than normal conditions are forecast for central Idaho, southern Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, Colorado, and west-central New Mexico. Mexico’s western coast will be drier than normal, particularly in Nayarit where anomalies will be extreme to exceptional. A line of intense dry anomalies is also forecast from Aguascalientes in the center of the country trailing south through Mexico City, into the southern states, and into western Central America. Moderate wet anomalies are forecast for Belize, and eastern Honduras and Nicaragua.

In South America, dry anomalies are expected from northwestern Venezuela through western Colombia and along the western nations into southern Chile and western Argentine. Anomalies will be intense in northwestern Colombia. Southeastern Venezuela will be moderately drier than normal, as will Suriname. The western Amazon region of Brazil will be moderately wetter than the norm. Some pockets of moderate wet anomalies are also expected around São Paulo, and north-central Argentina into Bolivia.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Alaska’s southern half, as well as neighboring southern Yukon Territory, jump out on the temperature map below with a forecast of exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures. Similar conditions will reach across the Bering Strait into Russia’s Far East. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast in British Columbia and northwestern Alberta, Canada. Likewise, the U.S. Northwest will be warmer than normal with extreme anomalies in western Washington and Oregon. Moderate to severe anomalies are predicted from northern Idaho to Missoula, Montana and in Nevada and western Arizona. Much of the East Coast will see warmer than normal conditions from Maine to Florida and into the Gulf States and the South Texas Plains. Anomalies will be widespread and exceptional in Florida.

Primarily moderate cool anomalies are forecast for South Dakota and Colorado.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Warmer than normal temperatures are expected in the Caribbean and will be exceptional in Cuba. In Mexico, warm anomalies are forecast in Baja, Coahuila, the southern Pacific Coast states, Yucatan, and around the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and will be intense in many areas. Panama will be exceptionally hotter than normal, and severe warm anomalies are forecast for Guatemala, El Salvador, and Costa Rica.

Warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected across much of South America’s northern bulk, including exceptional anomalies in Brazil’s easternmost states and Pará; west of Bogotá in northwestern Colombia; and following the Andes through Peru, western Bolivia, and into northern Chile. Moderately cooler than normal conditions are forecast for Paraguay and nearby regions of Argentina and Bolivia.

In Europe, warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for the U.K., France, Switzerland, the Iberian Peninsula, Italy, parts of the Balkans, and Romania. Anomalies will be severe in western Ireland, southern France, Spain, southern Italy, and even more intense in Corsica and Sardinia.

Some pockets of central Africa will be much cooler than normal including central DRC, central South Sudan, and eastern Uganda. Large pockets of warm anomalies are expected across northern Africa which will be intense in northern Niger and northwestern Sudan. Moderate to severe anomalies are expected in pockets of the Horn of Africa, including severe anomalies in the Ethiopian Highlands. Generally moderate warm anomalies are forecast for many parts of Africa’s southern half. However, anomalies will be intense along the Atlantic Coast from Gabon through northern Namibia and will reach inland along this path. Much hotter than normal temperatures are also expected in southern Kenya, northeastern South Africa, Swaziland, and parts of Madagascar.

In the Middle East, severe to exceptional warm anomalies are forecast for most of the southern half of the Arabian Peninsula and around the Persian Gulf reaching well into Iran. Much cooler than normal temperatures are expected along the Black Sea coast in northern Turkey. Moderate cool anomalies are forecast for northern Iraq, western Iran, and the Caucasus.

A vast stretch of warm anomalies including widespread exceptional anomalies is expected in central Russia between the Ural Mountains and the Central Siberian Plateau, and also in Russia’s Far East. Primarily moderate warm anomalies are forecast for Turkmenistan and parts of Uzbekistan and eastern Tajikistan, though anomalies will be much more intense along Turkmenistan’s Caspian Sea coast. Eastern Kyrgyzstan will be cooler than the norm.

In South Asia, relatively mild warm anomalies are forecast for most of India with more intense conditions in the far north, the northeast, and in West Bengal. Pakistan can expect exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures in a path across the center of the country and in the south around Karachi. Bangladesh will be much hotter than normal.

Warm anomalies are also expected in Southeast Asia and will be intense in Myanmar. Severe to exceptional anomalies are forecast for Malaysia, Borneo, and Sumatra, with warm anomalies of generally lesser intensity in other parts of Indonesia. Conditions in the Philippines will be warmer than normal as well, with some intense anomalies in the north.

Severe to exceptional warm anomalies are forecast in a wide path along the full extent of China’s southern border through Tibet (Xizang) to the South China Sea and Taiwan.

New Zealand will be much hotter than normal with exceptional anomalies throughout South Island. Moderate to extreme warm anomalies are forecast for eastern Australia and Tasmania with the most intense conditions around Brisbane.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released July 2, 2019 which includes forecasts for July 2019 through March 2020 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued June 24 through June 30, 2019.

Technical details:

  • Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:

    • Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.

    • Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.

    • Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).

  • The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.

  • Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.

  • Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.

  • Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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