The forecast through April indicates that the intense water deficits that have dominated many parts of Australia in prior months will nearly disappear. However, severe to exceptional deficits will persist in Tasmania; along Victoria’s coast; in northwestern New South Wales and the eastern portion of the Lake Eyre drainage basin; and in the Blackwood River region in the tip of Western Australia.
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The August Outlook indicates much warmer than normal temperatures in much of Europe reaching exceptional intensity in parts of Central Europe and southern Scandinavia. Precipitation is expected to be above average in Greece, Italy, and across the Mediterranean into Algeria.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from April 2018 through March 2019 include: southern Mexico, northern Brazil, North Africa, Europe, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Montana and Idaho (US), Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 July 2018.
Moderate water deficits, punctuated by more intense pockets, are expected across a large portion of the east and southeast including the Murray-Darling Basin, scattered across the north, and in the southwest tip of the country. Deficits are expected to be intense in Tasmania, pockets along the southeast coast, the southwest tip, Darwin and the Daly River region, and along the southern shore of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Intense deficits are forecast for New Caledonia.
Exceptional water deficits that have dominated southern Australia are expected to disappear, but deficits are forecast for northern Australia, the southwest, the southeast, and Tasmania. These deficits may be intense in Tasmania and in pockets of other aforementioned areas. Moderate deficits are expected along the Darling, Lachlan, and Macquarie Rivers in New South Wales. Surpluses will shrink but persist in the Mackenzie River region of Queensland and in southwest Kimberley region of Western Australia.
The April 2018 Outlook indicates wetter than normal conditions in India, East Africa, and northwest Brazil. Significantly warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for Far East Russia and Alaska, much of eastern China, particularly the Yangtze River Basin from Shanghai to Chongqing, and eastern Australia from Brisbane to Canberra.
Mainland Australia is forecast to transition from widespread exceptional water deficit to mild conditions, with more intense deficits in Tasmania. Areas of moderate deficit include eastern South Australia, Victoria, the Murray-Darling Basin, and the east coast to Brisbane. Surpluses will persist in the Kimberley region, WA; shrink along the Victoria River and emerge in Arnhem Land, NT; re-emerge in northern Cape York Peninsula, QLD; and continue to emerge in the Mackenzie River area west of Rockhampton, QLD. Deficits in New Caledonia and New Zealand will moderate.
Widespread, exceptional water deficits observed in recent months in Australia are forecast to nearly disappear, though intense deficits will persist in Tasmania and near Busselton, WA. Through April, primarily moderate deficits are forecast from the Eyre Peninsula in South Australia through much of Victoria and into New South Wales; for central Queensland to the Gulf of Carpentaria; and, northwest to Darwin, where deficits may be more severe. Deficits are expected to retreat significantly in New Zealand, but will continue to emerge in New Caledonia.
The December 2016 Precipitation & Temperature Outlook indicates that many parts of South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia are forecast to be much warmer than normal. Significant dry anomalies are expected to envelope Sri Lanka. Wet anomalies are forecast for Kazakhstan, northern Mongolia, Myanmar, the Malaysian Peninsula, Western Australia, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Venezuela.
Water deficits are forecast to persist through May in Tasmania, the southwestern tip of Western Australia, and from Adelaide through Victoria, though deficits of exceptional severity will diminish considerably in extent. Surpluses are forecast for central Queensland and parts of the Murray-Darling Basin through November. Far north reaches of Australia are expected to transition from deficit to moderate surplus from December through February.