The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably in Thailand, and surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. Surpluses in Myanmar will remain intense in the west and south. Severe deficits will emerge in Malaysia and Indonesia.
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The forecast through September indicates that water deficits will downgrade in Thailand and nearly disappear in Cambodia. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Southeast Asia leaving moderate anomalies in southern Cambodia and in the Mekong Delta. Moderate to severe deficits will emerge in Indonesian Borneo, and deficits in Papua New Guinea will diminish.
The July Outlook indicates exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures for southern Alaska and Southeast China, among other places. Much wetter than normal conditions are forecast for western Iran and in a band across Republic of the Congo and Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that intense water deficits in Thailand and Cambodia will disappear leaving mild deficits or nearly normal conditions. Surpluses will shrink considerably in Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, and Indonesia, transitioning to deficits in Borneo, Sumatra, and Java. Deficits will downgrade in Papua New Guinea but will be severe.
The forecast through July indicates that water deficits in Thailand and Cambodia will downgrade from exceptional but remain widespread and severe in Thailand and moderate in Cambodia. Prior surpluses in Southeast Asia and Indonesia will nearly disappear as deficits emerge. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for peninsular Thailand, Malaysia, Borneo, pockets of Sumatra, southern Philippines, and Papua New Guinea.
The May Outlook includes a forecast of exceptional warm anomalies in a number of places including northern Alaska; the State of São Paulo, Brazil and through the Andes from Colombia through northern Chile; and, around the Gulf of Guinea in Africa. Central Tanzania is expected to be much wetter than normal. Widespread, moderate to severe wet anomalies are forecast in a broad path in the U.S. from Michigan through Louisiana.
The forecast through May indicates that exceptional deficits will shrink in Cambodia and Thailand, but deficits will remain widespread and severe deficits will emerge in northern Thailand. Intense deficits will emerge in southern Myanmar, the Malay Peninsula, northern Sumatra, central Laos, southern Vietnam, Philippines, and northeastern Borneo. Deficits will persist in Papua New Guinea. Areas of surplus include western Myanmar, Indonesian Borneo and Java.
The forecast through March indicates that exceptional water deficits in western Cambodia will shrink somewhat but persist, and deficits in Thailand will downgrade slightly but remain widespread. Other areas of deficit include the Philippines, eastern Borneo, Sumatra’s southern tip, and Papua New Guinea. Surpluses are forecast for much of Vietnam, north-central Laos, most of Sumatra, western Indonesian Borneo, and pockets of Java.
The January Outlook indicates much wetter than normal conditions forecast for southern China through the Pearl River Basin encompassing the Pearl’s northern tributaries; and, oceans away in Uruguay. Temperatures in Northeast China are expected to be exceptionally warmer than usual, anomalies with a return period of 40 or more years.
The forecast through February indicates that water deficits will persist in western Cambodia and Thailand, emerge in the Philippines, and increase in Papua New Guinea. Deficits will be exceptional in Cambodia. Areas of surpluses include: northern Laos, northern Vietnam and parts of the Central Highlands, Malaysia, Sumatra, and northwestern Borneo. Surpluses may be intense in Riau and Jambi, Sumatra, and along the Kapuas River in Borneo.