Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from September 2018 through August 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Chile, Finland, Albania, northern Africa, India, western Cambodia, and southeastern Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas and Pennsylvania (US), Paraguay, western Tanzania, Tomsk and Kemerovo (Russia), and Heilongjiang (China). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 December 2018.
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The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably overall leaving mild to moderate deficits, but deficits will be intense along the Arkansas River through Kansas and Colorado, western Colorado, northeastern Utah, along the Canadian River through Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, and in the US Northeast. Areas of surplus include: Montana, the Black Hills of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and eastern Pennsylvania.
For the next several months, water deficits will diminish overall but intense deficits are forecast for southern California, the Willamette Valley in Oregon, along the Arkansas River, and western Colorado. Areas of moderate deficit include northern Minnesota and from Missouri to the Gulf. Surpluses are forecast for northern Nebraska, the Black Hills of South Dakota, southern Montana, the Pecos River in New Mexico into Texas, eastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, northern Virginia, coastal North Carolina, and much of Florida from Jacksonville past Lake Kissimmee.
The forecast through August indicates deficits in the Northeast, which could be exceptional in southern Maine. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast scattered from Virginia through Alabama, and covering nearly all of Florida. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for the Mississippi River Basin. Intense deficits are forecast for western Colorado, northern Utah, western Oregon, western Washington, and southernmost Texas. Primarily moderate deficits are expected in California. Surpluses will diminish in Idaho and downgrade slightly from exceptional in Montana.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from March 2018 through February 2019 include: southern Mexico, northern Brazil, North Africa, Europe, Afghanistan, and Southeast China. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Montana and Idaho (US), Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Spain, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 June 2018.
Intense water surpluses in the Ohio River Valley and the Lower Mississippi Basin will retreat considerably. Surpluses in western Montana and northern Idaho will remain intense. Exceptional deficits will persist in Utah and increase in southwest Colorado, but deficits in surrounding states will moderate. On the East Coast deficits will retreat, except in South Carolina and Georgia. Southern Florida will transition from deficit to surplus. Moderate deficits are forecast for Nebraska, eastern North Dakota, Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from February 2018 through January 2019 include: Brazil, southern Venezuela, Libya, Egypt, Gabon, Finland, Saudi Arabia, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho and western Montana (US), southeastern British Columbia (Canada), Tanzania, Kenya, Spain, Hungary, southern Romania, and eastern Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 9 May 2018.
Water surpluses will continue to emerge in southern Michigan and the Ohio River Valley. Exceptional surplus is expected on the Missouri River, western Montana, Idaho, and Washington. Intense deficits will continue in the West and Southwest. Moderate deficits are forecast for Oregon, Kansas, western Oklahoma, and most of Texas west of the Brazos River, with severe conditions in the Panhandle. Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi will transition out of deficit, with moderate surplus emerging in Arkansas into surrounding states. Deficits in the Mid-Atlantic States will shrink.
The near-term forecast through January indicates several striking changes from the prior three months: a transition in the Gulf Coast from water surplus to deficit, a broad path of deficits in the South Atlantic States, and surpluses from the Upper Midwest through the Ohio River Valley into the Northeast. In the spring normal water conditions should return to the Ohio River Valley and the Northeast, surpluses will continue to emerge in the Upper Mississippi, and deficits will moderate in the Lower Mississippi, Texas, and the South Atlantic States.
Exceptional water surpluses are forecast in southeastern Texas through November along with surpluses of lesser severity along the Gulf. Exceptional deficits in the Northern Plains States will moderate. In the West, surpluses are forecast in Idaho, nearby areas of surrounding states, and pockets of central California. Deficits are expected in: northern Colorado, Kansas, Iowa, northeastern and southernmost Texas, southern Michigan, northwestern Pennsylvania, northern Maine, southern West Virginia, and the Southeast. After November moderate surpluses are forecast for the Ohio River Valley.