Each month, ISciences reports on significant weather events occurring throughout the world and analyze how accurately our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) predicted them. In this series, we highlight the most severe global weather events which occurred during the month of April, and discuss the extent of their impact on the affected regions.
Exceptional deficits will remain in northwestern China, while regions of the Yangtze River Basin will observe an expansion of exceptional deficits across the region.
Extreme to exceptional surpluses in India will resolve, leaving moderate surpluses in central and eastern portions of the country. Deficits are expected to spread in portions of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and northern India.
Extreme to exceptional surpluses in Maritime Southeast Asia will diminish, though some regions will observe continuing severe to extreme surpluses. Isolated regions in Mainland Southeast Asia will observe exceptional deficits.
The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses will diminish in Central Europe and will shrink and moderate in Ireland and the United Kingdom. Intense deficits are forecast from Finland through eastern Bulgaria, and deficits of varying intensity in Central and Eastern Europe and from Moscow to the Caspian Sea.
The forecast through May indicates that water surpluses will shrink in Europe though remain widespread in the U.K., Ireland, and northern European Russia, and will be intense in Ireland and Russia. Intense deficits are forecast for Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, western Ukraine, and eastern Bulgaria.
The forecast through March 2020 indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade in western Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltics but become exceptional in Moldova, southern Ukraine, eastern Bulgaria, and west-central Poland. Deficits will remain intense in much of Finland. Widespread intense surpluses will persist in northern European Russia. Surpluses in Ireland and the U.K. will moderate.
Through January 2020 deficits will shrink and downgrade overall, though widespread and exceptional anomalies will persist in Finland. Deficits are expected in the Baltics, Eastern Europe, the Balkans, and Italy. Areas of surpluses include Ireland, the U.K., France, northwestern Spain, Switzerland, Denmark, and northern European Russia. Surpluses will be intense in Wales, England, and Russia.
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