Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from June 2017 through May 2018 include: Montana (US), Nayarit (Mexico), Amapá (Brazil), Italy, the Arabian Peninsula, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (India), Cambodia, Mongolia, and Tasmania (Australia). Water surpluses are forecast for: US Gulf Coast, La Pampa (Argentina), Tanzania, Bangladesh, Tripura and Mizoram (India), western Myanmar, Laos, Jiangxi and Guangxi (China), and Transvolga (Russia). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 September 2017.
The September Outlook indicates much warmer than normal temperatures - conditions we'd expect to see once in 20 to 40 years - in many regions of the world including India's southern half, coastal West Africa, and the eastern Amazon Basin. Much drier than normal conditions are forecast for central India.
After July the Northern Plains States should see a significant retreat of exceptional water deficits. Surpluses will persist in the Gulf region, diminish in the Great Lakes States, and transition to mild deficits in Virginia and North Carolina. After October moderate water surpluses will re-emerge in most of the Great Lakes States and in the Ohio River Valley, and pockets of surplus will continue to emerge in Idaho and surrounding states. Deficits in the southern states of the East Coast are expected to ratchet up slightly to moderate intensity and emerge in Florida.
Water surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in Russia stretching from western European Russia to the Western Siberian Plain through April 2018 and are expected to be exceptional in large pockets of the Volga Basin and between the Upper Ob and Tom Rivers surrounding Novosibirsk from August 2017 through January 2018. In the near-term, August through October, deficit conditions in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to ameliorate, leaving modest deficits. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in northern Kyrgyzstan, including Bishkek.
Intense water deficits in Mexico and western Cuba are forecast to retreat after July. However, severe to exceptional deficits remain in the forecast for northern Baja, in Nayarit, and peppered along the Gulf of Mexico from Tamaulipas through Tabasco. Surpluses are forecast for the border of Guatemala and Honduras, and in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and western Jamaica. After October deficits will continue to emerge in southern Mexico; surpluses in Central America are forecast to diminish to near-normal conditions.
The near-term forecast through October indicates a significant retreat of exceptional water deficits in the Prairie Provinces. Deficits will persist in central Quebec and southern Newfoundland, and emerge east of the St. Lawrence River, in New Brunswick, and in southern Nova Scotia. Surpluses are expected to persist in central Manitoba west of Lake Winnipeg, a large block of northwestern Saskatchewan into Alberta, southeastern British Columbia, and near Ottawa and west of Toronto. After October conditions will continue to moderate, though some exceptional surpluses will persist.
Exceptional water deficits in the Middle East are forecast to nearly disappear after October though widespread deficits of lesser intensity will continue to emerge. Until then, however, extreme to exceptional deficits will blanket much of the Arabian Peninsula, Syria, Jordan, Iraq west of the Euphrates, much of Georgia, and a pocket of southwestern Turkey surrounding Antalya. After October significant deficits remain in the forecast for Georgia, northern Saudi Arabia, Iraq west of the Euphrates, pockets of central Iran, and southwestern and eastern Yemen.
Exceptional water deficits observed in recent months over much of Australia should diminish considerably in the near-term and through April 2018. However, significant deficits are forecast through October in: Western Australia from the Hamersley Range to the southernmost tip; southeastern Australia and Tasmania; the north across Northern Territory and Queensland; and, New Caledonia. Deficits may be exceptional north and south of Perth; east of Melbourne; central Tasmania; around the Gulf of Carpentaria; and Darwin. Along Queensland’s northeast coast surpluses will persist near Mackay. Past October moderate deficits will continue to emerge in Victoria and New South Wales.
Recent exceptional deficits in Mongolia into Northeast China, on the Korean Peninsula, and in Honshu, Japan are expected to moderate in the near term – August through October – but severe to extreme deficits will continue to emerge in the northeast and moderate deficits will emerge from southern Gansu to the East China Sea. Widespread surpluses are forecast across much of southern China. After October intense deficits in northwestern China will increase in extent, in Xinjiang through Inner Mongolia and Mongolia, and deficits of lesser severity will continue to emerge in the Northeast China and in the North China Plain.
Though a significant retreat of exceptional water surplus in the region is forecast through October, exceptional surpluses remain in the forecast for: western Myanmar; eastern Thailand into southern Laos; and, southeastern Sulawesi and Sumbawa and Flores Islands in Indonesia. Exceptional deficits are forecast for a large block of western Cambodia, and deficits of varying severity are forecast for the Mekong Delta, southern Thailand, Singapore, Malaysian Borneo, southern Sumatra, and pockets in central Papua New Guinea. After October, near-normal conditions are expected in many parts of the region and deficits in western Cambodia will moderate.