The forecast through September indicates that surpluses will shrink in Russia’s Northern European Plain and persist in the Ob River Basin. Intense deficits are forecast for much of the Yenisei River Basin. Intense surpluses in southern Turkmenistan will begin to transition, with conditions of both surplus and deficit as deficits emerge. Deficits will also emerge in northeastern Uzbekistan.
The forecast through September indicates that moderate water surpluses will persist from Lake Huron to Toronto but surpluses in southern Quebec, including the Gatineau River Watershed and Montreal, will nearly disappear. Moderate to extreme deficits will persist in southern Manitoba. Exceptional deficits are expected in southern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, and surpluses in the southern Columbia Mountains.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from April 2019 through March 2020 include: Suriname, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Cameroon, and New Caledonia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the central United States, Paraguay, Syria, northern Iraq, southern Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Tanzania, and southeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 9 July 2019
The July Outlook indicates exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures for southern Alaska and Southeast China, among other places. Much wetter than normal conditions are forecast for western Iran and in a band across Republic of the Congo and Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates widespread surpluses in the Ob River Basin, deficits in much of the Yenisei River Basin, surpluses in the Lower Volga, and deficits in the Middle and Upper Volga regions. Intense surpluses will persist in southern Turkmenistan but both deficits and surpluses are also forecast as transitions occur. Surpluses are also forecast for eastern Uzbekistan, western Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and northern Kazakhstan.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates a transition away from widespread, exceptional water deficits in Australia to, overall, mild deficits or normal conditions. However, intense deficits are forecast for Tasmania, the southern tip of Western Australia, northern New Zealand, and New Caledonia. Moderate to severe deficits are expected from Brisbane to Canberra.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that, though some areas will begin to transition out of water surplus, widespread surpluses will persist from northern Syria into southern and eastern Turkey, from the Euphrates River in Iraq well into western Iran, and in northern Iran along the Caspian coast and the border with Turkmenistan. Deficits will increase in central Turkey and on the Arabian Peninsula and will include exceptional deficits in central Saudi Arabia.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates persistent, widespread water surpluses in Afghanistan with exceptional surpluses around Mazar-e Sharif and from Kandahar to Kabul. Exceptional deficits will emerge in southwestern Pakistan. In India, mild deficits or normal water conditions are forecast for most of the country, with moderate deficits in Kerala, northern Tamil Nadu, southeastern Madhya Pradesh, and Uttaranchal. Moderate surpluses will emerge in central Gujarat.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates persistent water surpluses in a wide path through the center of the country in the Mississippi River Basin and well into the Missouri, Arkansas, and Red River Basins, including exceptional anomalies in South Dakota. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the Rockies, central Arizona, California, Oregon, and in the Northeast. Deficits are forecast for pockets of Washington, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and southeastern states.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that intense water deficits in Thailand and Cambodia will disappear leaving mild deficits or nearly normal conditions. Surpluses will shrink considerably in Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, and Indonesia, transitioning to deficits in Borneo, Sumatra, and Java. Deficits will downgrade in Papua New Guinea but will be severe.