A significant retreat of exceptional deficits is forecast November through January, though deficits are forecast for much of Brazil’s northern half and along its southeast coast from São Paulo to Rio de Janeiro. Intense surpluses are forecast for central Colombia and Venezuela’s northeastern coast into Trinidad and Tobago. Moderate surpluses are forecast for northern Peru, northern Bolivia, southern Paraguay, and Buenos Aires Province, Argentina. After February, a transition from deficit to moderate surplus is forecast for northern Amazonian Brazil.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from August 2017 through July 2018 include: Amapá, Amazonas, and Maranhão (Brazil); Madhya Pradesh and Haryana (India); Cambodia; Fujian and Inner Mongolia (China); Mongolia; Papua New Guinea; and, South Australia and Tasmania (Australia). Areas with a forecast of significant water surpluses include: Bangladesh; Tripura, Mizoram, and Manipur (India), western Myanmar; the Yangtze River (China); Poland; and European Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) issued 8 November 2017.
South Africa stands out in the November Outlook with a forecast of exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures. Much of Asia, Indonesia, and the southern and eastern US are expected to be warmer than normal. Much drier than normal conditions are expected in a path following the Andes from Colombia through Brazil, while wetter than normal conditions are forecast for the US Northern Plains states and pockets of central Africa.
Water surpluses reaching exceptional intensity are forecast in western European Russia, the Upper Ob River and Tom River Basins, and the Transvolga Region, where conditions of both deficit and surplus may emerge. Surpluses are also forecast for many parts of Kazakhstan, and in Kyrgyzstan. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for the Yamal Peninsula and across the Gulf of Ob. Intense deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to diminish considerably leaving only mild deficits through December.
Intense water deficits are forecast through June 2018 in India’s central state of Madhya Pradesh. In the near-term, through December, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for central states, and moderate deficits will extend north. Gujarat will transition to conditions of both deficit and surplus. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for Tripura, Mizoram, and Manipur, but surpluses are expected to recede in other northeastern states and in West Bengal. Surpluses of varying severity are forecast for Nepal and western Bhutan. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for Pakistan and western Afghanistan.
The forecast indicates a gradual transition from predominantly surplus conditions to deficit. Western Cambodia and eastern Papua New Guinea, however, show deficit conditions throughout the 12-month forecast. Surpluses will begin to downgrade in the near-term but exceptional surpluses remain in the forecast through December for western Myanmar, northern and southern Laos, and along the west side of the Mekong River in Cambodia down to Phnom Penh. After December severe deficits will begin to emerge in Malaysia and Indonesia.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to nearly disappear after September leaving primarily moderate or severe deficits across the region. However, more intense deficits are expected in Georgia; along Turkey’s northern coast; surrounding the city of Basrah, Iraq; western Yazd Province, Iran; and eastern Yemen. Severe deficits are forecast for the Euphrates River. Overall, water deficits will continue to diminish through March, with mild deficits throughout much of the region. Severe deficits will continue to emerge in western Georgia and western Turkey.
Widespread intense deficits will emerge in Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, and Taiwan. Widespread intense surpluses are forecast for a vast stretch of the Upper and Middle Yangtze River, with exceptional surpluses in the Han River watershed. Aforementioned deficits may persist through March and surpluses may persist longer. Severe surpluses will continue to emerge along the Middle and Lower Yellow River through December. Surpluses in the western Pearl River watershed and around the Gulf of Tonkin are forecast to diminish slowly through March. Intense surpluses will continue to emerge in eastern Qinghai while intense deficits are forecast in the west.
A significant retreat of water deficits is forecast October through June, but through December exceptional deficits are expected in northernmost Brazil and into neighboring countries. Deficits are also forecast north of Lake Titicaca in Peru through La Paz and Cochabamba, Bolivia and into Argentina. Widespread, primarily moderate deficits are predicted in much of eastern Brazil, which may be more severe along the coast of the State of São Paulo. Surpluses are forecast in central Colombia, northern Peru, northern Bolivia, eastern Argentina, Uruguay, and O’Higgins Lake in Patagonia. After December widespread moderate surpluses are forecast in the northern Amazon Basin
Exceptional deficits observed in recent months over much of Australia are forecast to diminish considerably in the near-term and through June 2018. Through December, however, exceptional deficits are forecast for Tasmania and the southwest tip of Western Australia. Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast from Adelaide through Victoria and into the eastern Murray-Darling Basin in New South Wales. Moderate deficits are expected in New Caledonia and South Island, New Zealand. Surpluses are forecast for the Ord River Basin, northeastern Queensland, and Christchurch, New Zealand.