The forecast through August 2019 indicates widespread surpluses in the Ob River Basin, deficits in much of the Yenisei River Basin, surpluses in the Lower Volga, and deficits in the Middle and Upper Volga regions. Intense surpluses will persist in southern Turkmenistan but both deficits and surpluses are also forecast as transitions occur. Surpluses are also forecast for eastern Uzbekistan, western Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and northern Kazakhstan.
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The forecast through July indicates that exceptional water surpluses will persist in southern Turkmenistan. Deficits will emerge in northern Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and around Aktobe in northwestern Kazakhstan. Surpluses in Russia’s Ob River Basin will shrink and moderate overall, and deficits will emerge in the Yenisei River Basin. In the Volga region, surpluses will persist in the Lower Volga northeast of Volgograd, and deficits are forecast in the Middle Volga region.
The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses in the Ob River Basin of Russia will shrink and moderate, and intense deficits will emerge in the Tom River Basin’s southern reaches. Intense deficits will also emerge in the Yenisei River Basin. Severe deficits are forecast for western Kazakhstan, and eastern Uzbekistan’s Fergana Valley. Surpluses are expected in eastern Kyrgyzstan and southern Turkmenistan.
The forecast through February indicates intense water surpluses on the Ob, Vakh, Pur, and Taz Rivers in Russia. Surpluses will be widespread in the Middle Ob region and the Yenisei River watershed. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for western Kazakhstan, reaching across the northern border into the Ural River watershed in Russia. Surpluses are expected in northern Kazakhstan, eastern Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, and along the Zerafshon River in Ubekistan. Deficits are forecast for eastern Tajikistan and central Kyrgyzstan.
The forecast through December indicates that prior exceptional water deficits in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kazakhstan, and the North Caucasus region will downgrade considerably, leaving primarily mild conditions. In Russia, surpluses will increase between the Ob and Yenisei Rivers and will be extreme to exceptional. Moderate deficits are forecast in the southern Ural Mountains, with surpluses to the west. Surpluses will re-emerge in the Upper Don River watershed.
The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kazakhstan, and the North Caucasus region. Moderate deficits are forecast for northwestern Kazakhstan and across the border well into southern Russia, but deficits may be severe along the Ural River. Surpluses are forecast in the eastern and southern Ob River watershed of Russia, northern and eastern Kazakhstan, and eastern Kyrgyzstan.
The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will moderate overall in Central Asia, though conditions may be more severe along the Amu Darya River in eastern Turkmenistan, the Zaravshan River in eastern Uzbekistan, and the Ural River through northwestern Kazakhstan into Russia. Moderate deficits will emerge in central Kazakhstan. In Russia, deficits will downgrade in the Caucasus. Surpluses are forecast along the Ob, Irtysh, and Ishim Rivers and in the Tom River watershed, and wide band of surplus will extend to the Gulf of Ob.
In Central Asia, water deficits will increase and intensify in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan and extreme deficits will persist in central Kyrgyzstan. Surpluses are forecast for northern Kazakhstan and south of Lake Balkhash. In Russia, deficits will moderate in the Caucasus and North Caucasus. Severe deficits will increase along the Ural River around Orenburg. Surpluses are forecast along the Ob, Irtysh, and Ishim Rivers and the Upper Ob and Tom River Basins. Moderate surpluses are forecast for the Northern European Plain.
Water surpluses will shrink in European Russia, transitioning to both deficit and surplus the Northern European Plain. Widespread deficits along the Pechora Sea through Yamal Peninsula and into the Central Siberian Plateau will retreat considerably. Surpluses in the Upper Ob and Tom River regions will diminish but remain widespread. Deficits will increase in the Bolshoy Yugan River watershed in the Middle Ob. Surpluses will persist in northern Kazakhstan, and deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan, central Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
The June Outlook indicates much warmer than normal temperatures (40+ years return period) blanketing a large block of Northeast China and stretching across the border well into Russia. Much of Europe is forecast to be warmer than normal, as well as many parts of Indonesia, while much cooler temperatures will prevail in parts of Central Africa. Conditions are expected to be much wetter than normal for several African nations along the Atlantic near the equator.