The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of April 2021 through March 2022 include: the U.S. West, Chile, North Africa, the Middle East, Estonia, and Latvia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the U.S. Gulf States, Botswana, Timor, Northeast China, and the Yenisei River in Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 6 July 2021.
The forecast through August indicates widespread water deficits in the east, including many areas of exceptional deficit, as surpluses retreat. In the Prairie Provinces, deficits in the south will shrink and downgrade. Surpluses will persist in much of the Fraser River watershed in British Columbia.
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