The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period October 2021 through September 2022 include: North Africa, Venezuela, Chile, the Texas Panhandle (U.S.), and Mangystau, Kazakhstan. Areas of significant water surplus include: China, Nepal, India, Southeast Asia, and Brazil. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 6 January 2022.
The January Outlook indicates much wetter than normal conditions in the Xingu River watershed of northern Brazil and from Rajasthan, India into southern Pakistan. Several regions of the world can expect to be exceptionally hotter than normal including Indonesia and a vast belt from eastern Kazakhstan to Lake Baikal.
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