The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through May 2023 indicates severe to extreme surpluses to continue throughout western states of the Continental U.S., including central to northeastern Nevada, central California, southeastern Idaho, northern Nebraska, and western Colorado. Surpluses in the southwestern states are expected to persist throughout November 2023 or longer.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period December 2022 through November 2023 include: Canada, the Middle East, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, and China. Areas of significant water surplus include: the western United States, Pakistan, Malaysia, central Africa, and southeastern Australia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 7 March 2023.
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