The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of January 2023 through December 2023 include the central and Southern Cone region of South America, much of Canada’s provinces, Africa, and the Middle East. Areas expected to experience surplus include the southwestern United States, eastern South Asia, and central Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 7 April 2023.
Our April 2023 Global Precipitation and Temperature Outlook indicates that several regions of the world will experience significantly warmer temperatures than normal, with exceptional anomalies occurring in many areas, including South America, East and Southeast Asia, Russia, northwest Africa, and central Mexico. Precipitation anomalies are expected to be mild overall, with some areas experiencing pockets of moderate to severe surpluses, such as Russia, Australia, South America.
The forecast through May 2023 predicts widespread exceptional surpluses in much of Russia’s Yenisei River Watershed, Central Siberian Plateau, and pockets throughout the Russian Far East. Severe to exceptional surpluses will persist from central Tyumen Oblast further east into territories near the city of Omsk.
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