*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2024

The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2024
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E ...

The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.

Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E Africa
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia

water anomaly

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List April 2016

Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys; southern Mexico; Guatemala and El Salvador; northern Brazil; Finland; Niger; southern Somalia; Zambia; Southeast Asia; and, Mongolia. Significant water surpluses are forecast for: central Argentina; Ireland and the UK; Tanzania; western Ethiopia; central Kazakhstan; northern India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan; western Borneo; West Java; and Southeast China. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 7 April 2016.

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Is the Past Decade of Persistent Drought In Brazil a New Normal?

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A sixty-year record of extreme weather conditions shows a disturbing pattern of deficit surface water conditions throughout Amazonia.The Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM) developed by ISCIENCES LLC is used to examine average monthly hydrological conditions throughout the basin. An apparent correlation with the emergence of temperature extremes over the same period begs the question whether man-made climate change is the root cause.The literature however points to man-made deforestation as the critical factor, raising concern that "the Amazon is losing the ability to control it's own climate." If true, consequences will have profound impact on the region and the global environment.

Australia: Exceptional drought forecast to persist in Tasmania, Victoria, southern South Australia, and from Perth southward; exceptional surpluses in the northwest

Through September 2016, the forecast indicates water surpluses in the north and along central rivers in Australia, with exceptional surpluses in northwest basins. Exceptional drought is forecast to persist in Tasmania, Victoria, southern South Australia, and from Perth southward.

Canada: Widespread water deficits forecast with excecptional deficits in BC, AB, MB, ON, QC, NB, and NL

Through September 2016, the outlook for Canada indicates widespread water deficits across the country with large pockets of exceptional deficits expected in parts of British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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