Watching: United States and Canada; Mexico and Central America; South America; Middle East; Europe; Africa; South Asia; China, Mongolia, South Korea, Japan; Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in June 2015 and running through May 2016 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

Regional details are available in ISciences' Global Water Monitor & Forecast September 15, 2015 (pdf).

United States and Canada: Deficits may persist in the US Northwest. Deficits in the West may persist for a few months before beginning to transition to moderate surpluses. Surpluses are forecast in the Central and Southern Plains and parts of the eastern US. In contrast, widespread deficits are expected to emerge in the Mississippi Valley from the Gulf of Mexico northward to Minnesota; and, from Canada’s Central Plains eastward through Ontario and into Quebec.

Mexico and Central America: Deficit conditions are forecast to persist in southern Mexico and much of Central America. Surpluses are expected in northwest Mexico.

South America: Deficits may continue across much of northern South America, particularly persistent in northern Brazil, and coastal Peru and Chile. Surpluses may emerge in coastal Ecuador and northern Peru. Surpluses are also forecast for central Paraguay, southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina, and are expected to increase in extent and severity with widespread exceptional surpluses.

Middle East: Extreme to exceptional water deficits may dominate the region, including the Arabian Peninsula, Jordan, southern Iraq, and central Iran. Surplus conditions in Turkey are expected to transition to deficits, increasing in extent and severity.

Europe: Widespread deficits are expected in much of Continental Europe, while surpluses may dominate in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Deficits may transition to surpluses, first in Western Europe and later in Central Europe. However, Mediterranean Spain, Italy, Eastern Europe, and the Balkan Peninsula may experience persistent deficits.

Africa: Exceptional surpluses are expected in East Africa, centered in Tanzania. Exceptional deficits may dominate North Africa and are forecast to persist in coastal West Africa from southern Liberia to Angola. Deficits may strengthen in southern Africa and Madagascar.

South Asia: Extreme to exceptional deficits are forecast in several regions of India: Central Uttar Pradesh; East Madhya Pradesh/Northwest Chhattisgarh; Maharashtra/Northern Karnataka/Telangana.

China, Mongolia, South Korea, Japan: Widespread deficits may continue in North China including the North China Plain and in Mongolia, though some areas may experience both deficits and surpluses. Widespread surpluses are forecast for Southeast China and southern Honshu, Japan. Exceptional deficits may persist in South Korea before beginning to diminish in severity.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Many parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific may continue to experience moderate to exceptional water deficits in the coming months, particularly eastern Borneo and neighboring Sulawesi, the island of New Guinea, and the Philippines. Though periods of some respite are forecast, deficits are expected to return and spread in Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.


Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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