The June Outlook indicates much warmer than normal temperatures (40+ years return period) blanketing a large block of Northeast China and stretching across the border well into Russia. Much of Europe is forecast to be warmer than normal, as well as many parts of Indonesia, while much cooler temperatures will prevail in parts of Central Africa. Conditions are expected to be much wetter than normal for several African nations along the Atlantic near the equator.
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Exceptional water deficits are forecast to shrink considerably through June, but deficits will increase overall as Turkey transitions from surplus to deficit and severe deficits emerge in Yemen and western Oman. Exceptional deficits will persist in southeastern Turkey, southern Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, northern Saudi Arabia, and along the Persian Gulf in Iran. Intense deficits will emerge in Gaza, Israel, West Bank, and Lebanon. In Iran deficits will downgrade but remain widespread. After June, deficits in Lebanon and West Bank will upgrade to exceptional.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to shrink, though deficits in the region will increase overall, emerging in Turkey, Yemen, and Oman. Exceptional deficits are expected in southern Iraq. Deficits will remain widespread in the bulk of Iran east of Tehran, with extreme conditions in southern Kerman Province. After May, deficits will emerge in eastern Turkey, joining those in the rest of the country, and moderate deficits will emerge throughout Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.
Severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast throughout Saudi Arabia from May through July, increasing in extent from the prior three months, and in southern Iraq and west of the Euphrates. Deficits nearly as intense will emerge in United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Lebanon. Deficits of varying severity are forecast for Turkey, Lebanon, West Bank, Israel, Jordan, Yemen, Oman, and eastern Iran. Surpluses may persist in northeastern Iraq into northwestern Iran. The forecast for August through October shows a distribution pattern similar to May through July.
The overall progression of water anomalies forecast through August 2017 indicates that widespread water deficits will persist throughout the Middle East, first diminishing in severity through February – with a significant reduction in the extent of exceptional deficits – before increasing in both extent and severity thereafter. Extreme deficits are forecast for southern Oman from March through May.
The overall progression of water anomalies forecast through July indicates that widespread water deficits will persist throughout the Middle East but these deficits are expected to be less severe from November through April than in the prior three months. However, after April the forecast shows the severity level increasing, especially on the Arabian Peninsula.
Widespread water deficits are forecast to persist throughout the Middle East, but the severity of deficits will diminish October through December and continue to diminish through March. Exceptional deficits are, however, forecast for southwestern Yemen through December. Moderate to severe deficits will emerge in northern and eastern Turkey, and moderate deficits will emerge nearby in northwest Iran. Severe deficits are forecast for Syria and for Iraq from the Euphrates west.
Water deficits are forecast to become less severe from September through November in southern Turkey, the Levant, northern Saudi Arabia, and eastern Oman. However, the extent and severity of deficits will increase in southern Iraq, Iran, Qatar, and Yemen. The progression of water anomalies forecast in the Middle East indicates that widespread water deficits will persist through May, diminishing after October before becoming more severe again from March on.
The forecast for the Middle East through October, though an improvement over the widespread and exceptional water deficits of the preceding months, indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will remain extensive. Deficits of varying severity will persist on the Arabian Peninsula, in the Levant, southern Turkey, and much of Iran. These widespread water deficits will persist through April, but will diminish in severity from November on.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the US Northeast and Southeast, southern Mexico, central Brazil, Finland, North Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Saudi Arabia, Cambodia, and Tasmania. Water surpluses are forecast for: western Wisconsin, Nebraska, eastern Texas, the Ob and Volga River Basins in Russia, central India, the Yellow and Lower Yangtze Rivers in China. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 August 2016.