The Big Picture
Moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in southeast China, as depicted in the 12-month map below. Moderate deficits are forecast for northeast China, and both deficits and surpluses are forecast in western regions including the Tibetan Plateau. 

"Peach blossom" flooding - so-called because it coincides with the flowering of spring peach blossoms - has begun in China, toppling houses and inundating farmland in south and south-central regions. Flood alerts were issued for the Xiangjiang River, a tributary of the Yangtze and 265 flights were cancelled at Shenzhen Airport in Guangdong. In Mongolia, a freezing winter, known as a "dzud," has resulted in the death of 200,000 livestock following a drought that devastated the country's wheat crop.

Forecast Breakdown
Though surpluses are forecast to persist in southeast China through May, as evident in the 3-month maps (below), a transition to some moderate deficits in Guangxi, Guangdong, and Guizhou is apparent in the later months of the forecast. Surpluses are forecast in the north along the Yellow River tracing a path to the Bohai Sea as seen in the March through May map. These surpluses are expected to emerge in May and persist through June along much of the river and longer in western regions. Southern Honshu, Japan may transition from moderate surpluses to moderate deficits from July onward.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)


Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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