Water surpluses are forecast to persist in Southeast China through March but with diminished severity, except in Shanghai and Jiangsu where exceptional surpluses may persist. Deficits will continue to emerge on the Liaodong Peninsula, eastern Sichuan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, and eastern Yunnan. Exceptional deficits intermingled with conditions of both deficit and surplus are expected across northern China from central Inner Mongolia west and north into Mongolia. After March Southeast China is forecast to transition to normal conditions and anomalies elsewhere in the country will generally diminish in severity.
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Most noteworthy in the November 2016 Outlook is the forecast of a vast expanse of exceptionally warmer temperatures for the US Midwest and northward through Canada. Significant warm anomalies are also expected in coastal West Africa, the Gulf of Guinea, Madagascar, India's southern tip, and Southeast Asia. Exceptional dry anomalies are forecast along South America's northern Pacific coast and in southern Ethiopia. Areas forecast to experience wet anomalies include northern Brazil and northern Australia.
Moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in China along the Yellow River and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River through October. Deficits will continue to emerge in Shandong, eastern Yunnan, and western Guangxi. Widespread deficits are forecast for the Korean Peninsula from September on, and deficits will continue to emerge in Southeast and Northeast China. Deficits may recede in Honshu, Japan in October before re-emerging.
Water surpluses are expected to persist, though diminish in severity, in many provinces of China along the Yangtze River and south in the coming months, and then transition to moderate deficits beginning in November. Severe surpluses are forecast along the Yellow River in June. Deficits are forecast in Hainan June through August. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in Hokkaido, central Honshu, and Shikoku, Japan from June through August, and deficits may continue to emerge in some areas of Japan through February.
Widespread moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in southeast China and the Yangtze River. Surpluses are also forecast along the Yellow River beginning in May, which may become extreme in June. A transition to moderate deficits is forecast for southeast China in the later months. Moderate deficits are forecast in Mongolia, and both deficits and surpluses are forecast in western regions of China including the Tibetan Plateau.
Moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in southeast China. Moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast for northeast China, exceptional deficits in Mongolia, and both deficits and surpluses are forecast in western regions of China including the Tibetan Plateau. Surpluses are expected on the Yangtze River in April and on the Yellow River in June.
East Asia: Water surpluses in southeast China forecast to continue, transitioning to moderate deficits later in the year
Moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in southeast China, then transition to moderate deficits in Guangxi, Guangdong, and Guizhou in the later months. Moderate deficits are forecast for northeast China, and both deficits and surpluses are forecast in western regions including the Tibetan Plateau. Surpluses are forecast on the Yellow River in May.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, US; southern Mexico; northern Brazil; Mediterranean Europe; Finland and Estonia; coastal West Africa; western Turkey; Yemen; and Southeast Asia. Significant water surpluses are forecast for: the Southern Plains and southern Florida, US; northwestern Mexico; central Argentina; Ireland; Kenya; central Kazakhstan; Java; and southeast China. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 March 2016.