Exceptional water deficits in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia through southern Xinjiang will diminish considerably, though widespread deficits of varying severity are expected. Deficits will increase in Northeast China and are expected to be intense in Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang. In Southeast China, moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast for Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Surpluses are forecast for the Huai River Basin. Moderate deficits are forecast for much of North Korea but deficits may be severe north of Pyongyang.
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Mixed conditions across East Asia are expected to continue over the next three months with moderate water deficits in China’s southern provinces of Guizhou and Guangxi persisting throughout the forecast period. Deficits on the Korean peninsula may shift from the vicinity of Incheon and Seoul to cover the majority of North Korea. Northeastern China is expected to develop severe to exceptional deficits that may intensify by the December through February 2018 period. Surpluses are indicated in the near-term for western Tibet but moderating over the extended forecast.
A return to normal water conditions is forecast for Southeast China from April through June – a change from surpluses observed in prior months. Deficits are forecast to emerge in South Korea, Japan, Northeast China, the Shandong Peninsula, Henan, and Shaanxi. Severe to exceptional deficits will persist in southern Mongolia, western Inner Mongolia, the Tarim Basin and eastern Dzungaria regions of southern Xinjiang, and southern Liaoning. Surpluses are forecast for northern Sichuan and much of Qinghai. The forecast for July through September indicates the persistence of deficits in western Inner Mongolia and Mongolia, and the emergence of deficits in the Sichuan Basin.
Water surpluses are forecast to persist in Southeast China through March but with diminished severity, except in Shanghai and Jiangsu where exceptional surpluses may persist. Deficits will continue to emerge on the Liaodong Peninsula, eastern Sichuan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, and eastern Yunnan. Exceptional deficits intermingled with conditions of both deficit and surplus are expected across northern China from central Inner Mongolia west and north into Mongolia. After March Southeast China is forecast to transition to normal conditions and anomalies elsewhere in the country will generally diminish in severity.
The December 2016 Precipitation & Temperature Outlook indicates that many parts of South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia are forecast to be much warmer than normal. Significant dry anomalies are expected to envelope Sri Lanka. Wet anomalies are forecast for Kazakhstan, northern Mongolia, Myanmar, the Malaysian Peninsula, Western Australia, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Venezuela.
Moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in China along the Yellow River and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River through October. Deficits will continue to emerge in Shandong, eastern Yunnan, and western Guangxi. Widespread deficits are forecast for the Korean Peninsula from September on, and deficits will continue to emerge in Southeast and Northeast China. Deficits may recede in Honshu, Japan in October before re-emerging.
Water surpluses are expected to persist in many provinces of China along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River through September though surpluses will not be as severe or widespread as in previous months. In November southeast China will begin to transition from surplus to moderate deficit which will gradually encompass much of the country. Deficits will emerge on the Korean Peninsula in October. By November deficits in Japan will spread in Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the US Northeast, eastern Ontario, Veracruz, Guatemala, central Brazil, the Baltics, North Africa, northern Zambia, southern India, Thailand, Cambodia, the Mekong Delta, the Malay Peninsula, and Timor. Water surpluses are forecast for: eastern Texas, West Virginia, Nebraska, northern France, Tanzania, Kazakhstan, the northern Indus River in Pakistan, and the Yangtze River. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 July 2016.
Water surpluses are expected to persist, though diminish in severity, in many provinces of China along the Yangtze River and south in the coming months, and then transition to moderate deficits beginning in November. Severe surpluses are forecast along the Yellow River in June. Deficits are forecast in Hainan June through August. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in Hokkaido, central Honshu, and Shikoku, Japan from June through August, and deficits may continue to emerge in some areas of Japan through February.
Widespread moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in southeast China and the Yangtze River. Surpluses are also forecast along the Yellow River beginning in May, which may become extreme in June. A transition to moderate deficits is forecast for southeast China in the later months. Moderate deficits are forecast in Mongolia, and both deficits and surpluses are forecast in western regions of China including the Tibetan Plateau.