South Asia: Some water surplus to persist in Bangladesh; deficits in Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand

26 June 2017

The Big Picture
South Asia is forecast to experience moderate to severe deficit conditions across much of the region over the 12-month forecast period (below). Exceptional deficits are expected in central and southwestern Pakistan, in southern Chhattisgarh state and in eastern Tamil Nadu.

Surplus conditions are forecast to continue in Northern Pakistan, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh, and in Meghalaya extending into central Bangladesh.

Impacts
Flooding and landslides have displaced half a million people in Sri Lanka. In late May heavy rainfall triggered river overflows and mudslides that left over 150 people dead with the death toll rising, 112 missing, 1,800 homes damaged, and some towns under 18 feet of water. More than 2,000 military personnel were deployed to help Sri Lankan police and civilian agencies, and international relief efforts included food, medical teams, and inflatable boats from the United Nations, World Health Organization, World Food Programme, India, Pakistan, the US, China, Australia, and Russia. With rescue operations underway officials are also concerned about waterborne illnesses such as cholera and diarrhea, and have issued warnings about possible crocodile attacks.

In Assam, India, over 82,000 people have been affected by June flooding in four districts of the northeastern state, according to Assam State Disaster Management Authority, which left 146 villages under water, and 500 hectares of cropland damaged. Authorities have established 256 relief camps and distribution points.

In Mizoram State, just south of Assam, monsoon rains have brought the worst flooding in 50 years on the Tlawng River, killing at least 8 people, submerging 350 homes, and collapsing bridges and roads. And, in neighboring Tripura State flooding has left 2,000 homeless.

Forecast Breakdown
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions.

The forecast for June through August indicates a general moderating of extremes from recent observations with mild deficit conditions across most of India and Pakistan. Moderate to severe deficits may develop in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in the north of the country and Tamil Nadu in the south. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast for Bangladesh, and surplus flow conditions are expected for the Indus River in Pakistan.

Conditions in the later forecast periods indicate mild deficits conditions should continue with some intensification in southwestern Pakistan in the September through November forecast, and intensification in western India toward the end of the forecast period with severe to exceptional deficit conditions developing in south and central Gujarat.

The forecast indicates limited areas of moderate to severe surpluses developing in Jammu & Kashmir September through February.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2017 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.