The forecast through June indicates that intense water deficits will emerge throughout much of India south and west of the Gangetic Plain. Intense surpluses are forecast in northern India, northern Pakistan, and much of Afghanistan. Anomalies will reach exceptional intensity in many of these regions. Deficits will emerge in southern Afghanistan and will be severe in the southwest. Surpluses are forecast in Nepal, Bangladesh along the Padma River and in the northeast, and nearby regions of India.
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The forecast through April indicates that, while exceptional water deficits in Gujarat and in the south will downgrade, widespread deficits of varying intensity are forecast in western and southern India. Surpluses will re-emerge in Uttar Pradesh in the western Gangetic Plain. Other regions with surpluses include Mizoram (India), Bangladesh, Nepal, rivers in northern Pakistan, and around Kabul, Afghanistan.
The forecast through March indicates intense water deficits in western and southern India with exceptional deficits in Gujarat and Karnataka. Surpluses are forecast for Uttar Pradesh into western Nepal, and in Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Jammu and Kashmir. Exceptional deficits are forecast in southeastern Pakistan, moderate deficits in the southwest, and surpluses in the northeast. Surpluses are expected in Bangladesh and will be exceptional in Chittagong Division reaching into Mizoram, India.
Through February, exceptional water deficits are forecast in India from Gujarat through Maharashtra and Karnataka, and deficits of varying severity in many regions south of the Gangetic Plain and to the west in Rajasthan. In Pakistan, isolated intense deficits are possible in Karachi. Moderate deficits are forecast in northern Afghanistan, but conditions may be intense northeast of Kabul and along the Harirud River in the west. In Bangladesh, exceptional surpluses are forecast in Chittagong.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist in Afghanistan, retreating slightly in the north but increasing in the south. Pakistan should get a reprieve as intense deficits diminish considerably, leaving moderate to severe conditions in western Baluchistan. India will transition out of widespread deficit to milder conditions, with moderate deficits in the south and more severe deficits in the Far Northeast, particularly Assam. Surpluses will downgrade to moderate in West Bengal, and will shrink and downgrade in Bangladesh while remaining fairly intense, especially in Dhaka Division.
Intense water deficits are forecast to persist in central India and western Karnataka through April 2018. In the near-term through January, deficits will continue to emerge across India’s northern half and may be exceptional in Haryana and Punjab; moderate deficits are forecast for Afghanistan and Pakistan. After January deficits will moderate except in central India and western Karnataka. Surpluses reaching exceptional severity are forecast through April in Bangladesh and Indian states to the east, as well as western Bhutan, Nepal, West Bengal, Jammu and Kashmir, Andhra Pradesh, and Sri Lanka.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from August 2017 through July 2018 include: Amapá, Amazonas, and Maranhão (Brazil); Madhya Pradesh and Haryana (India); Cambodia; Fujian and Inner Mongolia (China); Mongolia; Papua New Guinea; and, South Australia and Tasmania (Australia). Areas with a forecast of significant water surpluses include: Bangladesh; Tripura, Mizoram, and Manipur (India), western Myanmar; the Yangtze River (China); Poland; and European Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) issued 8 November 2017.
The near-term forecast through October indicates that exceptional deficits will nearly disappear in India but moderate to severe deficits will continue to emerge, covering much of the north/south extent of the country. Surpluses are forecast for Gujarat, Jammu and Kashmir, West Bengal, and Mizoram. Deficits are forecast for southern Afghanistan, central and southern Pakistan, and eastern Bhutan. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in much of Bangladesh and central Nepal. Deficits in Sri Lanka will ameliorate, leaving moderate deficits in the east. Beyond October primarily moderate deficits will continue to emerge in central India through April 2018.
In the June through August forecast period water conditions are largely moderate across the sub-continent. Moderate to severe water deficits may develop in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in the north of India and Tamil Nadu in the south. Surplus flows are expected in the Indus River and moderate to severe surpluses may persist over Bangladesh. Conditions moderate in the mid forecast period though surpluses may develop in Jammu & Kashmir September through February 2018 and exceptional deficits may develop in south and central Gujarat in the final forecast period extending into 2018.
In India from November through January exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist in Karnataka and Kerala, diminish in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, and emerge in northern states and coastal Gujarat. Surpluses are forecast along the Banas River, and in Nepal, Bangladesh, and western Myanmar, and are expected to persist through April. From February through April exceptional deficits will emerge throughout Gujarat. Surpluses will persist in the Chambal River Basin and will re-emerge in the Ganges Basin.