16 July 2018

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in April 2018 and running through March 2019 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts.Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast July 16, 2018 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through September indicates that, while exceptional water deficits will diminish overall and in the Southwest and Southern Rockies in particular, moderate to severe deficits are expected in a wide path from Missouri to the Gulf. Deficits may be intense in Louisiana, along the Arkansas and Canadian Rivers, and the Pacific Northwest coast. In the Northeast, deficits will persist and spread further in Maine. Significant surpluses will persist in the Northern Rockies, and surpluses will emerge in much of Florida.

Canada: Exceptional water deficits are forecast to decrease, though vast blocks will persist. These areas include: Quebec from the Caniapiscau Reservoir to the St. Lawrence River; surrounding Lake Mistassini, QC; Ontario’s eastern border; northeastern Manitoba; the Lower Athabasca River region in Alberta; surrounding Prince George, British Columbia; and, northwestern BC. Intense surpluses will persist from northwestern Saskatchewan reaching west to Fort McMurray, Alberta, and in southeastern BC.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Over the next few months, significant water deficits will emerge in southern Mexico including Michoacán, Guerrero, Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Chiapas. Exceptional deficits will also reach into Central America, emerging in Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras. Deficits will downgrade somewhat in western Cuba but intensify in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica will transition from surplus to deficit.

South America: Exceptional water deficits will diminish over the next few months but large pockets are forecast for Brazil in Acre, Rondônia, Pará, Tocantins, Goiás, western Minas Gerais, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paolo. Deficits elsewhere include: Venezuela surrounding Caracas; western Ecuador; a path from east of Lima, Peru through the Atacama Desert in Chile; and, along the Río Paraguay. Surpluses are forecast for Peru’s Huánuco Region; central and eastern Colombia into Apure, Venezuela; southeastern Peru into central Bolivia; and, the eastern Argentine Pampas.

Europe: The forecast through September indicates that widespread water deficits in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe will downgrade from exceptional levels in most affected regions but remain intense, especially in Central Europe and Finland. Deficits are expected to be extreme on many rivers including the Oder, Elbe, Danube, and Rhine. Surpluses are forecast for the Iberian Peninsula, parts of Eastern Europe and the Balkans, and European Russia.

Africa: Exceptional water deficits will shrink and downgrade across North Africa and along the Red Sea but deficits will remain widespread and intense. Intense deficits are also forecast for western Ethiopia, southern Gabon, northwestern Botswana, central Zambia, and western Madagascar. Exceptional surpluses will persist in East Africa; extreme surpluses are forecast for the conjoined borders of Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Republic of the Congo; and surpluses of lesser intensity are forecast for westernmost Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Middle East: The forecast through September indicates that water deficits will downgrade in the Levant but remain intense in West Bank and Lebanon, and deficits will intensify on the Arabian Peninsula. In Turkey, deficits will downgrade and shrink somewhat but much of Turkey will continue in moderate to severe deficit with some pockets of greater intensity. Exceptional deficits will persist in southern Iraq, and severe deficits west of the Euphrates River. In Iran, deficits will increase and become more intense.

Central Asia and Russia: In Central Asia, water deficits will increase and intensify in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan and extreme deficits will persist in central Kyrgyzstan. Surpluses are forecast for northern Kazakhstan and south of Lake Balkhash. In Russia, deficits will moderate in the Caucasus and North Caucasus. Severe deficits will increase along the Ural River around Orenburg. Surpluses are forecast along the Ob, Irtysh, and Ishim Rivers and the Upper Ob and Tom River Basins. Moderate surpluses are forecast for the Northern European Plain.

South Asia: Through September, exceptional water deficits will increase in Afghanistan, reaching the southern border to dominate roughly two-thirds of the country. Deficits in southern Pakistan are expected to shrink and moderate; moderate surpluses are forecast along the Indus River in the north. In India, primarily moderate deficits will persist in a wide band across the center of the country, but may be more intense in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Odisha. Deficits will increase and intensify in southern India. Surpluses in Bangladesh will shrink and downgrade.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast indicates a transition away from widespread, intense water surplus to deficit. Deficits are forecast for peninsular Malaysia, Borneo, Sulawesi, New Guinea, Java, pockets in Sumatra, and eastern Mindanao. Deficits will diminish somewhat in northwestern Cambodia, increase in southeastern Thailand, and emerge in Vietnam east of Hanoi and in central Myanmar. Surpluses are forecast for western and southern Myanmar, northern Laos, northwestern Vietnam, eastern Cambodia into Vietnam, central Philippines, and East Nusa Tenggara.

East Asia: Through September, exceptional water deficits in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and southern Xinjiang will diminish considerably, as well as in Southeast China and Taiwan. Moderate to severe deficits will persist in the Southeast with some pockets of exceptional deficit lingering in Hunan. Widespread surpluses will diminish overall, but surpluses of varying severity will persist in the Lower and Middle Reaches of the Yellow River, the Han River Basin, Qinghai, Yunnan, Hainan, and western Tibet.

Australia & New ZealandModerate water deficits, punctuated by more intense pockets, are expected across a large portion of eastern and southeastern Australia, scattered across the north, and in the southwest. Deficits may be intense in the southwest, and in the east near Adelaide and Melbourne, from Canberra to Sydney, and around Brisbane. Moderate deficits are forecast in New Zealand and intense deficits in New Caledonia. 

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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