AFRICA: WATER SURPLUSES PERSIST IN TANZANIA & KENYA
21 June 2018
Exceptional deficits are forecast in southeast Algeria and northern Niger, across Libya, Egypt, and northern Sudan. Deficits of equal intensity are expected in southern Eritrea, Djibouti and across the border into Somalia; Gabon; southwest Namibia; and a pocket in central Northern Cape, South Africa.
Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast in Nigeria south of the Benue River, eastern Central African Republic, northern Ethiopia, and Democratic Republic of the Congo. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for West Africa down through Sierra Leone, and in Angola and northern Namibia.
In East Africa exceptional surplus conditions are forecast for much of Tanzania and surpluses nearly as intense for Kenya, northern Uganda, and the White Nile through South Sudan. Surpluses are also forecast for northern Madagascar, northern Morocco, the central coast of Algeria, south-central Ethiopia, and pockets around the Gulf of Guinea.
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.
The forecast through August indicates that exceptional deficits across North and West Africa will diminish but severe to exceptional deficits are expected in southeast Algeria, northern Niger, Libya, Egypt, and northern Sudan. Deficits will shrink and downgrade in Gabon but remain severe, as will deficits south of the Benue River in Nigeria and across the border into Cameroon. Deficits are expected to downgrade in Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Angola, becoming primarily moderate. Deficits will persist in western Zambia and are expected to be extreme on the Kafue River. Moderate surpluses will emerge in northwestern Zambia, but deficits will persist east of the Chambeshi River in the north and around Zambia’s conjoined borders with Malawi and Mozambique. Moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast to emerge in central Botswana.
Exceptional surpluses will persist in Tanzania, Kenya, and northern Uganda, but will diminish somewhat in northern Madagascar. Surpluses east of Kinshasa in DRC will increase in both extent and intensity, becoming severe. Elsewhere, surpluses are forecast to: shrink in south-central Ethiopia; downgrade slightly on the White Nile through South Sudan; shrink and downgrade in western Central African Republic and southeastern Cameroon; emerge in moderate pockets in countries along the north coast of the Gulf of Guinea; and persist in northern Morocco and along Algeria’s central coast.
From September through November moderate to exceptional deficits will continue to emerge across North Africa but exceptional deficits will shrink considerably. Surpluses will remain intense in Tanzania but will shrink and downgrade in Kenya. Aforementioned surpluses in Morocco and Algeria will downgrade, and moderate surpluses remain in the forecast around the Gulf of Guinea. Primarily moderate deficits are expected in the center of the continent and mild deficits in the south. Deficits in Zambia will remain severe, including along the Kafue River. Moderate surpluses will increase in Lesotho and westward along the Orange River in South Africa until it meets the Vaal in the center of the country, picking up again on the Lower Orange along the southern border of Namibia.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
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