The forecast through September indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade overall, leaving moderate to severe deficits across the north and generally milder deficits in the south, punctuated by more intense pockets. Areas of exceptional deficit include Ethiopia west of Addis Ababa, coastal Côte d’Ivoire, southeastern Nigeria, and pockets of Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Botswana. Surpluses are forecast in Tanzania, Uganda, and south of Durban and west of Johannesburg, South Africa.
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The forecast through February indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably. However, areas with notably intense conditions include western Ethiopia; pockets of northern Somalia, Nigeria, and southwestern Cameroon; southwestern Angola into Namibia; and, Lesotho and the Orange River region of Northern Cape, South Africa. Surpluses are forecast for Tanzania, southern Congo into western DRC and northern Angola, and south-central Chad.
Exceptional water deficits will shrink and downgrade across North Africa and along the Red Sea but deficits will remain widespread and intense. Intense deficits are also forecast for western Ethiopia, southern Gabon, northwestern Botswana, central Zambia, and western Madagascar. Exceptional surpluses will persist in East Africa; extreme surpluses are forecast for the conjoined borders of Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Republic of the Congo; and surpluses of lesser intensity are forecast for westernmost Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Exceptional water deficits in North Africa will diminish but persist, and severe deficits are forecast in Gabon and in Nigeria south of the Benue River. Deficits will also persist in western Zambia and are expected to be extreme on the Kafue River. Moderate to exceptional deficits will emerge in central Botswana. Exceptional surpluses will persist in Tanzania, Kenya, and northern Uganda, but diminish somewhat in northern Madagascar. Surpluses east of Kinshasa in Democratic Republic of the Congo are forecast to increase in both extent and intensity, becoming severe.
The forecast through July indicates that exceptional water deficits across northern Africa will diminish, but intense deficits will persist in Libya, Niger, Egypt, and Sudan. Deficits will downgrade in Gabon and southern DRC but remain severe. Deficits will persist in western Zambia and are expected to be extreme on the Kafue River. Relatively mild deficits are forecast for southern Africa. Intense surpluses will persist in Tanzania, Kenya, northern Uganda, and northern Madagascar.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from January 2018 through December 2018 include: the US Southwest, Brazil, southern Venezuela, northern Africa, Gabon, Zambia, Finland, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho, southern British Columbia, Tanzania, Hungary, southern Romania, and Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 April 2018.
Widespread exceptional water deficits are forecast to emerge across northern Africa from April through June; deficits of lesser severity are forecast across Africa’s mid-section. Deficits in the Horn of Africa, DRC, and Angola are expected to downgrade to primarily moderate severity. Surpluses are expected in southeast Sudan into South Sudan, southeastern Tanzania, western Zambia, the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana, Zimbabwe, northern South Africa, and northern Madagascar. After June deficits across northern Africa are forecast to recede slightly overall, but severe to exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in southern Somalia, and moderate to severe deficits may emerge in northeast Namibia.