Abundant rainfall during Ethiopia’s rainy season July through September 2020 filled the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) allowing sufficient release to placate downstream neighbors, but future peace depends on more than short-lived water surpluses.
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Ethiopia
The August 2020 Outlook indicates much wetter than normal conditions in Gujarat, India and in the Horn of Africa. Notable areas with a forecast of exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures include eastern Canada, much of southern China into Southeast Asia, and Queensland, Australia.
The forecast through September indicates water deficits across northern Africa, nearly normal conditions in the Sahel and central African nations, intense surpluses in East Africa, and generally mild deficits in the south.
The forecast through July indicates water deficits in North Africa with exceptional deficits emerging in eastern regions. Deficits will retreat from the Horn of Africa. Surpluses will remain widespread in East Africa and will increase in Ethiopia, South Sudan, and southern Sudan.