Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from April 2019 through March 2020 include: Suriname, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Cameroon, and New Caledonia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the central United States, Paraguay, Syria, northern Iraq, southern Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Tanzania, and southeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 9 July 2019
Viewing entries tagged
The forecast through August 2019 indicates moderate water deficits across northern Africa with large pockets of exceptional deficit in Libya, Egypt, and Sudan. The southern Sahara and the Sahel will be near-normal, and deficits in the Horn will downgrade. Mild deficits will cover much of southern Africa, punctuated by surpluses in East Africa and some pockets of intense deficit from Cameroon through Republic of the Congo, in southern Angola, northern Namibia, and western Botswana.
The forecast through April indicates that water deficits will downgrade in the southern half of the continent, becoming primarily moderate across the central breadth and mild in the south. Deficits in the north will increase and intensify, with moderate to extreme deficits in the Sahara and deficits reaching exceptional intensity in parts of the Sahel and into western Ethiopia. Intense deficits will linger in Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. Surpluses will persist in western Tanzania.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from October 2018 through September 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Finland, Venezuela, Somalia, South Africa, India, Thailand, Cambodia, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas (US), Paraguay, Uruguay, Tanzania, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 1 February 2019.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from September 2018 through August 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Chile, Finland, Albania, northern Africa, India, western Cambodia, and southeastern Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas and Pennsylvania (US), Paraguay, western Tanzania, Tomsk and Kemerovo (Russia), and Heilongjiang (China). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 December 2018.
The December Outlook indicates exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures, 40+ years return period, in Southeast Asia. Much wetter than normal conditions are forecast for the Yangtze River Basin in China.
The forecast through January indicates that exceptional deficits in Africa will shrink considerably, but moderate to severe deficits are forecast across much of the north. Areas of intense deficit include southeastern Algeria; the Nile River, the White Nile and parts of the Blue Nile; northwestern and southeastern Nigeria; western Ethiopia; and northern Democratic Republic of the Congo into Central African Republic. Areas of surpluses include south-central Chad and Liberia.
The forecast through December indicates that intense deficits will shrink considerably across northern Africa but emerge across the southern Sahara and into the Sahel. Intense deficits are forecast for the Nile River and western Ethiopia. Mild deficits are forecast for much of Africa’s southern half. Areas of surplus include southern Mali, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Burkina Faso, Ghana, coastal and northeastern Nigeria, south-central Chad, Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, and southern Kenya.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from July 2018 through June 2019 include: Germany, Finland, southern Iraq, western Cambodia, Mato Grosso and São Paulo (Brazil), Karachi (Pakistan), and southeastern Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Pennsylvania and Iowa (US), Uruguay, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Heilongjiang (China). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 11 October 2018.
Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for a vast stretch of Russia east of the Ural Mountains, through the Central Siberian Plateau and leading south to the Sea of Japan, where anomalies will be intense. Similar conditions are expected across the border in China’s Northeastern Plain. The US Southwest can expect much wetter than normal conditions.