Europe: Exceptional water deficits persist in Finland & Latvia
18 February 2019
THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through October 2019 indicates moderate deficits throughout many parts of Europe along with a number of areas with significantly more intense conditions. Exceptional deficits are forecast for southern Sweden, Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Regions with severe to extreme deficits include Luxembourg, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, northern Germany, Belarus, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, and European Russia.
Surpluses are forecast for central Austria, eastern Ukraine, Crimea, and Peloponnese, Greece.
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month time period show the evolving conditions.
The forecast through April indicates persistent, intense deficits in Finland, southern Sweden, Estonia and Latvia. Some pockets of intense deficit are forecast for northern Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, and eastern Slovenia and Croatia. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in Belarus and across the border into European Russia past the Volga River. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for the southern Iberian Peninsula, central France, northern Italy, Poland, and other pockets of Europe. Surpluses are forecast for Switzerland, Austria, scattered pockets of the Balkans, southern Bulgaria, Romania, eastern Ukraine, Crimea, southern Norway, parts of Lapland, and Murmansk, Russia.
From May through July, surpluses will diminish as mild to severe deficits emerge throughout much of Europe and exceptional deficits persist in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Some pockets of extreme deficit may persist in nations along the southern North Sea. Surpluses will persist in eastern Ukraine, Crimea, and Peloponnese, and may be exceptional in Crimea.
The forecast for the remaining months – August through October – indicates mild to moderate deficit conditions throughout most of Europe with more intense deficits in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, and southern Norway and Sweden. Surpluses will persist in eastern Ukraine and Crimea.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
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NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
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