The forecast through April indicates persistent, intense water deficits in Finland, southern Sweden, Estonia and Latvia. Other areas with pockets of fairly intense deficit include northern Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, and eastern Slovenia and Croatia. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in Belarus and across the border into European Russia past the Volga River. Regions with surpluses include Switzerland, Austria, the Balkans, Romania, eastern Ukraine, and Crimea.
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The forecast through September indicates that widespread water deficits in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe will downgrade from exceptional levels in most affected regions but remain intense, especially in Central Europe and Finland. Deficits are expected to be extreme on many rivers including the Oder, Elbe, Danube, and Rhine. Surpluses are forecast for the Iberian Peninsula, parts of Eastern Europe and the Balkans, and European Russia.
Exceptional water deficits are expected to diminish considerably in the coming months – persisting only in Finland – leaving moderate deficits throughout much of Europe with slightly more intense deficits in parts of the Balkans. Intense surpluses will persist in western Russia, and surpluses are also forecast for northern Sweden, central Germany, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. After November most areas of deficit will return to near-normal conditions. Intense surpluses will persist in western Russia, along with surpluses of lesser severity primarily in Northern Europe.
The extent of exceptional water deficits is expected to diminish considerably in the coming months though southern Europe will remain in moderate deficit through April 2018. Some relief is in the near-term forecast, particularly for Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Belgium, as exceptional deficits shrink through October, though Finland will remain in the grip of intense deficits. Surpluses are forecast for western Russia, the border of Romania and Moldova, and a pocket in north-central Germany.
Deficits will persist in much of Western Europe and Scandinavia, will spread in the Iberian Peninsula and in Italy, and will emerge in eastern Czech Republic, western Slovakia, and Hungary. Surpluses will continue to emerge in Belarus, Ukraine, northeastern Romania, and in a vast expanse of western European Russia. The UK and Ireland are expected to transition from deficit to near-normal conditions. After May the forecast indicates a retreat of surpluses and the continued emergence of deficits throughout Europe.
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from November 2016 through October 2017 include: Arkansas, Quebec, French Guiana, Chile, Brazil, France, Germany, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, northern Africa, Kenya, Tanzania, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Arctic Russia, southern India, Cambodia, Papua New Guinea, Inner Mongolia, and Queensland. Water surpluses are forecast for: Idaho, Nevada, California, northern Botswana, northeastern Afghanistan, central Vietnam, southern Thailand, and Shanghai. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 February 2017.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist through January in Western Europe, Sweden, and Finland, while Eastern Europe transitions to conditions of water surplus which will persist through April. Deficits in Western Europe will persist through April or longer and deficits will continue to emerge in Mediterranean Europe.
Europe: Water deficits, especially Scandinavia, Spain & Ukraine, surpluses in western European Russia
For the next three months water deficits will continue to dominate much of Europe especially Spain, Scandinavia, the Baltics, and Ukraine. Although the severity will diminish the extent will increase. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for western European Russia. From January through March deficits are expected to diminish in both extent and severity across Europe. Surpluses will continue to emerge in European Russia during that period and will also emerge in the Baltics and southern Scandinavia.
Water deficits are forecast through September in parts of Central Europe, Eastern Europe, the Baltics, southern Norway and Sweden, and Finland. Surpluses are expected in northern France and across the border into Germany, Belgium, and in southern Netherlands. From October on, surpluses are expected to emerge, first in Scotland, Germany, Norway and Sweden; and later in other parts of Central Europe, the Baltics, and Finland. Deficits are forecast for the Iberian Peninsula.
Water surpluses are forecast through August for northeastern France; northern Portugal and Galicia, Spain; and North Yorkshire, United Kingdom. Water deficits are forecast for Germany, Poland, western Ukraine, Finland, the Baltics, Mediterranean Spain, Corsica, the Peloponnese region of Greece, and Crete. Deficits are expected to persist in Finland and the Baltics. With the exception of deficits in Finland, both deficits and surpluses throughout Europe are forecast to diminish in severity after August.