The ISciences Global Water Monitor and Forecast Watch List provides monthly reports of data collected by our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM), which monitors and forecasts water anomalies on a global basis.
The forecast for April 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of January 2024 through December 2024 in South America, northeastern Africa, and the Middle East. Areas expected to experience surplus include eastern to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern regions of China, but lessen in size in northern and northeastern China. Surpluses occurring in Tibet are also expected to remain but diminish in size.
The forecast indicates that deficits will persist throughout Mainland Southeast Asia, but decrease in intensity, becoming mostly moderate to severe anomalies. Intense surplus is expected to expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia, particularly in central Indonesia, Papua, and Papua New Guinea.
The forecast through May indicates an increase in the extent of water deficits overall. Though surpluses are forecast for Austria, Switzerland, Norway, and northwestern Sweden, much of the rest of Europe can expect deficit conditions. Exceptional deficits will persist in Finland, southern Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, eastern Slovenia, and Croatia. Severe deficits will be widespread in Portugal, Spain, France, and Hungary. Pockets of intense deficit are forecast for many other regions.
The forecast through April indicates persistent, intense water deficits in Finland, southern Sweden, Estonia and Latvia. Other areas with pockets of fairly intense deficit include northern Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, and eastern Slovenia and Croatia. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in Belarus and across the border into European Russia past the Volga River. Regions with surpluses include Switzerland, Austria, the Balkans, Romania, eastern Ukraine, and Crimea.
The forecast indicates a transition in April to water deficits across much of Europe, but until then widespread surpluses will persist in Northern, Central, Eastern Europe, and European Russia and are expected to be exceptional in Russia, northern Poland, northwestern Ireland, and along the Dnieper River in Ukraine. Deficits will continue to emerge in Southern Europe, particularly the Iberian Peninsula, but will retreat significantly in France, persisting only along the southern coast. Intense deficits will emerge in Crimea, and will persist in northern Finland and northern Norway.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from October 2017 through September 2018 include: Missouri (US), Brazil, Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Turkmenistan, Inner Mongolia (China), and South Australia and Tasmania (Australia). Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Ireland, Poland, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 January 2018.
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