The forecast through April indicates persistent, intense water deficits in Finland, southern Sweden, Estonia and Latvia. Other areas with pockets of fairly intense deficit include northern Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, and eastern Slovenia and Croatia. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in Belarus and across the border into European Russia past the Volga River. Regions with surpluses include Switzerland, Austria, the Balkans, Romania, eastern Ukraine, and Crimea.
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Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: central Brazil, North Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, the Arabian Peninsula, Iran, Finland, the Baltics, Thailand, the Malay Peninsula, and Timor. Water surpluses are forecast for: Texas, Sao Paulo, northern France, northwestern Iberian Peninsula, Tanzania, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, western Borneo, southeast China, and Kazakhstan. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 7 June 2016.