The ISciences Global Water Monitor and Forecast Watch List provides monthly reports of data collected by our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM), which monitors and forecasts water anomalies on a global basis.
The forecast for April 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of January 2024 through December 2024 in South America, northeastern Africa, and the Middle East. Areas expected to experience surplus include eastern to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern regions of China, but lessen in size in northern and northeastern China. Surpluses occurring in Tibet are also expected to remain but diminish in size.
The forecast indicates that deficits will persist throughout Mainland Southeast Asia, but decrease in intensity, becoming mostly moderate to severe anomalies. Intense surplus is expected to expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia, particularly in central Indonesia, Papua, and Papua New Guinea.
The forecast through April indicates persistent, intense water deficits in Finland, southern Sweden, Estonia and Latvia. Other areas with pockets of fairly intense deficit include northern Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, and eastern Slovenia and Croatia. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in Belarus and across the border into European Russia past the Volga River. Regions with surpluses include Switzerland, Austria, the Balkans, Romania, eastern Ukraine, and Crimea.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: central Brazil, North Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, the Arabian Peninsula, Iran, Finland, the Baltics, Thailand, the Malay Peninsula, and Timor. Water surpluses are forecast for: Texas, Sao Paulo, northern France, northwestern Iberian Peninsula, Tanzania, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, western Borneo, southeast China, and Kazakhstan. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 7 June 2016.
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