The near-term forecast through November indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade overall but remain intense in Myanmar and Laos. Extreme to exceptional deficits will increase in western Cambodia, and deficits of generally lesser severity will spread throughout much of Thailand. Deficits will increase in Malaysia, downgrade in Java and Papua New Guinea, and emerge in central Philippines, parts of Indonesia, and East Timor.
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Southeast Asia & Pacific
Through October, water surpluses will persist with intensity in western Myanmar, retreat from northwestern Thailand, downgrade slightly in Laos and Vietnam, shrink considerably in the Philippines, and nearly disappear in Malaysia and Indonesia. Exceptional surpluses are forecast along the Mekong River. Deficits north of Tonle Sap in Cambodia will intensify. Deficits are also forecast for the Malay Peninsula, western Indonesian Borneo, southern Sumatra, Java, Timor-Leste, and Papua New Guinea.
The forecast indicates a transition away from widespread, intense water surplus to deficit. Deficits are forecast for peninsular Malaysia, Borneo, Sulawesi, New Guinea, Java, pockets in Sumatra, and eastern Mindanao. Deficits will diminish somewhat in northwestern Cambodia, increase in southeastern Thailand, and emerge in Vietnam east of Hanoi and in central Myanmar. Surpluses are forecast for western and southern Myanmar, northern Laos, northwestern Vietnam, eastern Cambodia into Vietnam, central Philippines, and East Nusa Tenggara.
The forecast indicates a transition away from widespread, intense water surplus to deficit. Surpluses are forecast, however, for parts of Myanmar, northern Laos, northwestern Vietnam, eastern Cambodia, central Philippines, and East Nusa Tengara. Intense deficits will emerge in southernmost Thailand, and spread in Malaysia and northern Sumatra. Deficits of varying intensity are expected to emerge throughout Indonesia and may be extreme in West Nusa Tengara and Timor-Leste. Deficits in Papua New Guinea will downgrade but remain severe.
The forecast indicates a transition away from water surplus to deficit. Moderate deficits are forecast for northern Cambodia, southern Vietnam, northern Luzon, and pockets of Sumatra and Java. More intense deficits are forecast for peninsular Thailand and Malaysia, eastern Papua New Guinea, western Timor Leste, and West Nusa Tengara. Surpluses are expected in north-central Vietnam, northern Borneo, northern Sumatra, central Philippines, North Sulawesi, East Nusa Tengara, and Pulau Sumba.
The forecast indicates a transition away from water surplus to deficit. Deficits are forecast for mainland Southeast Asia, Peninsular Malaysia, northern Sumatra, and Luzon and Mindanao in the Philippines; deficits may be exceptional in Peninsular Malaysia. Exceptional deficits in Cambodia will shrink considerably but persist in a pocket northeast of Tonlé Sap. Severe deficits are forecast for Vietnam’s Mekong Delta region. Surpluses are forecast for central Philippines. After June, anomalies in the region will downgrade though severe deficits will continue in Peninsular Malaysia.
Cambodia continues to stand out through May in Southeast Asia with exceptional water deficit in the west. Surpluses are forecast for much of the rest of Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, and may be especially intense in western Myanmar, around the Gulf of Tonkin, central Philippines, and Brunei. Deficits will emerge in the southern tip of Sumatra and into Java, but are expected to nearly disappear in Papua New Guinea, persisting mainly around the Gulf of Papua. After May, surpluses in the region will retreat and Cambodia will return to near-normal conditions.
Exceptional water deficits will persist in western Cambodia through April. Deficits of varying severity are expected in Sumatra, Java, western Borneo, and Papua New Guinea. Intense surpluses are forecast for western and eastern Myanmar, northern Laos, along the Mekong River until it reaches Cambodia, and central Philippines. Surpluses are also forecast for Vietnam, pockets of Thailand, Brunei, and northeastern Borneo. After April, surpluses will retreat, Cambodia will transition to near-normal, and deficits are expected in Malaysia, Sumatra, and western Borneo.
Though water deficits persist in western Cambodia and Papua New Guinea, surpluses have dominated the rest of the region but will gradually transition to moderate deficit. Through March, exceptional surpluses are forecast in Myanmar, northern Laos, and northern Vietnam; less intense surpluses in southern Laos, eastern Cambodia, southern Vietnam, the Philippines, and Sumatra; and exceptional deficits in western Cambodia and northern Papua New Guinea. Mild deficits will emerge in Indonesia, and continue to emerge overall after March.
The forecast over the next six month indicates a gradual transition from predominantly surplus conditions to deficit, though western Cambodia and Papua New Guinea stand in contrast with current deficit conditions persisting throughout the period. In the near-term through February surpluses will diminish in Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, and Papua, but will persist in Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam. After February deficits will emerge throughout Malaysia and Indonesia, diminish in western Cambodia, and moderate in Papua New Guinea.