Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E ...

The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.

Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E Africa
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge ...

The forecast anticipates a widespread emergence of surplus in India, with the most intense concentrations appearing in central, southern, and eastern regions of the country. Exceptional deficits are expected in regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge throughout India

Africa

Africa: Exceptional water deficits to diminish considerably

Africa: Exceptional water deficits to diminish considerably

Overall the extent of exceptional water deficits is expected to diminish considerably September through November leaving moderate deficits in the south and extreme to exceptional deficits across the southern Sahara. Exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in southeastern Tanzania, and while those areas of surplus will moderate slightly after November, surpluses will emerge throughout the country and may be particularly intense in Dodoma Region. Except for surpluses in East Africa, primarily moderate deficits are forecast for most of the continent from November through spring next year.

Africa: Water deficits persist in Somaliland and Somalia; surpluses in Tanzania

Africa: Water deficits persist in Somaliland and Somalia; surpluses in Tanzania

The extent of exceptional water deficits is expected to diminish considerably through October – particularly in the southern half of the continent – but deficits reaching exceptional intensity are forecast from northern Mauritania through northern Sudan, and in Somaliland, Somalia, and eastern Ethiopia. A large block of exceptional surplus is forecast in eastern Tanzania, and some exceptional surplus is also expected in northern Madagascar. Overall, deficits will continue to downgrade through January 2018, while surpluses will increase in Tanzania and will emerge in Malawi, northern Mozambique, eastern Zambia, Uganda, western Kenya, and along the While Nile in South Sudan. 

Africa: Water deficits forecast to emerge in Botswana, NE Namibia

Africa: Water deficits forecast to emerge in Botswana, NE Namibia

The extent of exceptional water deficits is expected to diminish considerably after September, though deficits of varying severity will remain in the forecast and will likely be more severe in the northern half of the continent. In the near-term, July through September, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast in the desert regions of the northern nations, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, northern Niger, and northern Sudan; and also in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon. Exceptional deficits will retreat in southern Namibia during this period but will emerge in the northeastern portion of the country, eastward into neighboring Botswana and across the border into South Africa. Exceptional surpluses are forecast to continue in eastern Tanzania though September but will retreat to the coast by December.

Africa: Severe water deficits in northern Africa, Gabon, & Botswana

Africa: Severe water deficits in northern Africa, Gabon, & Botswana

Severe to exceptional water deficit conditions are expected to continue in the desert regions of the northern nations, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, northern Niger, and northern Sudan. Gabon, Botswana and Madagascar are also expected to experience exceptional deficit conditions in the near term. Surpluses in Tanzania may shift southward in the out months entering early 2018. While conditions moderate across sub-Saharan Africa,  there are indications that moderate to severe deficits may develop across the Sahel and northern Chad and Sudan in the December through February 2018 period.

Africa: Water surpluses forecast for SE Tanzania, NE & coastal Kenya

Africa: Water surpluses forecast for SE Tanzania, NE & coastal Kenya

Severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast across northern Africa, Gabon, central Republic of the Congo, and western Madagascar through July or longer. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in northern Cameroon, eastern Central African Republic, southwestern Ethiopia, western Kenya, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Angola, and northern Mozambique. Exceptional surpluses are expected to emerge in northeastern and coastal Kenya, and to re-emerge in south-central Sudan. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast to persist in southeastern Tanzania, western Zambia, northern Botswana, Zimbabwe, and along South Africa’s border with Botswana. After July deficits in the north will persist, though diminish slightly in intensity and extent.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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