Though intense water deficits will persist in northern Africa over the next few months, exceptional deficits will shrink in the north and along the Red Sea, and will nearly disappear from the rest of the continent. Intense deficits will persist in Zambia’s Kafue River watershed. Areas of surplus include: Tanzania, Kenya, eastern Uganda, some countries along the northern Gulf of Guinea, central Chad, and northwestern Zambia. Surpluses will be intense in East Africa.
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The June Outlook indicates much warmer than normal temperatures (40+ years return period) blanketing a large block of Northeast China and stretching across the border well into Russia. Much of Europe is forecast to be warmer than normal, as well as many parts of Indonesia, while much cooler temperatures will prevail in parts of Central Africa. Conditions are expected to be much wetter than normal for several African nations along the Atlantic near the equator.
Much warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in February for the US West, the Baja Peninsula, the Tibetan Plateau, and far northeastern Russia, including the Kamchatka Peninsula. Nearly all of India will be warmer than normal. Paraguay is expected to be cooler than normal. Eastern Brazil should see above average rainfall, as will central Mexico and western India.
The extent of exceptional water deficits is expected to diminish considerably through October – particularly in the southern half of the continent – but deficits reaching exceptional intensity are forecast from northern Mauritania through northern Sudan, and in Somaliland, Somalia, and eastern Ethiopia. A large block of exceptional surplus is forecast in eastern Tanzania, and some exceptional surplus is also expected in northern Madagascar. Overall, deficits will continue to downgrade through January 2018, while surpluses will increase in Tanzania and will emerge in Malawi, northern Mozambique, eastern Zambia, Uganda, western Kenya, and along the While Nile in South Sudan.