The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast for October 2023 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of July 2023 through June 2024 in northern Africa, the Middle East, northern China, western and northern South America, and the majority of Canada’s provinces. Areas expected to experience surplus include the western United States, Alaska, north-central Australia, and southeastern Africa.
The forecast for September 2023 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of June 2023 through May 2024 in northern Africa, northern and western South America, the Middle East, and most of Canada’s provinces. Areas expected to experience surplus include the western United States, north-central Australia, and southeastern Africa.
The forecast for August 2023 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of May 2023 through April 2024 in northern and southern Africa, European Russia, and most of Canada’s provinces. Areas expected to experience surplus include the western United States, north-central Australia, and southeastern Africa.
The forecast for July 2023 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of April 2023 through March 2024 in northern and southern Africa, Central Asia, and much of Canada’s provinces. Areas expected to experience surplus include the southwestern and western United States, northern Australia, and various areas of Russia.
The forecast for June 2023 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of March 2023 through February 2024 in much of South America, central and southern Africa, and much of Canada’s provinces. Areas expected to experience surplus include the southwestern and western United States, western South Asia, and various areas of Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 7 June 2023.
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