*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2024

The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2024
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E ...

The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.

Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E Africa
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia

Canada

Canada: Water deficits in Ontario and Quebec

Canada: Water deficits in Ontario and Quebec

The outlook for Canada through December indicates that, overall, the extent of exceptional water deficits will shrink, though a span across central Quebec will persist until March. Deficits of varying severity are forecast for most of Ontario and Quebec. Surpluses are forecast in the southwestern corner of Northern Ontario from Kenora north which are expected to persist through March. Surpluses are also forecast for southern British Columbia near Kamloops and the Peace Country region of Northeast British Columbia through March.

Canada: Moderate water deficits forecast for southeastern ON

Canada: Moderate water deficits forecast for southeastern ON

The outlook for Canada indicates large pockets of exceptional water deficits persisting in northern Manitoba and central Quebec through November which will diminish in extent and severity thereafter. Mostly moderate deficits are expected in southeastern Ontario from London to Ottawa through November. Surpluses are forecast to emerge in southwestern Ontario and persist through February. Surpluses are also forecast for southern British Columbia through May.

Canada: Water deficits persist in northern MB, ON, central QB

Canada: Water deficits persist in northern MB, ON, central QB

The outlook for Canada indicates a predominance of water deficits, with large pockets of exceptional deficits persisting in northern Manitoba and central Quebec through October. Deficits will emerge in central Ontario during this time and surpluses will persist in northwest Saskatchewan and across the border into Alberta. By November deficit conditions throughout the country are forecast to ameliorate, though large areas of moderate deficits will remain. Surpluses will continue to emerge in southern British Columbia.

Canada: Water deficits through September in northern MB, eastern ON, & central QB

Canada: Water deficits through September in northern MB, eastern ON, & central QB

The outlook for Canada indicates large pockets of exceptional water deficits through September in northern Manitoba, eastern Ontario, and central Quebec, along with deficits of generally lesser severity in British Columbia and the Prairie Provinces. Surpluses are forecast northwest of Quebec City, on the southern shore of Hudson Bay, and in northern Saskatchewan. From October on, deficits across the country are forecast to diminish and surpluses will emerge in southern Ontario and northern Quebec.

Canada: Pockets of exceptional water deficits to persist in MB, ON, QB, & NL

Canada: Pockets of exceptional water deficits to persist in MB, ON, QB, & NL

The outlook for Canada indicates water deficits of varying severity across the country with pockets of exceptional deficits in parts of Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Newfoundland. Exceptional surpluses are forecast to emerge in southern Quebec in July. After August deficits are expected to diminish in severity and extent across the country, though moderate to severe deficits will persist from British Columbia to northwestern Ontario. 

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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