The major changes forecast through May are that exceptional water deficits will shrink in Quebec though large pockets will persist, and widespread surpluses in Northern Ontario will transition to deficit. As for major population areas, intense deficits are forecast for Southern Ontario and through southern Quebec; near Vancouver, British Columbia; near Winnipeg, Manitoba; and surrounding Regina, Saskatchewan. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in many parts of the country. In British Columbia, surpluses will increase in the southeast and transition to deficit in the southwest.
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Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the US South, Oaxaca (Mexico), Chile, Scandinavia, southeastern Ethiopia and southern Somalia, Iran, the Indian states of Karnataka, Kerala, and Gujarat, and Cambodia. Water surpluses are forecast for: the US Northwest and Upper Midwest, eastern North Carolina, southern British Columbia (Canada), Nicaragua, eastern Romania, southern Belarus, northeastern Poland, Nepal, Bangladesh, western Myanmar, Java, Shanghai, Fujian, and the Warrego River Basin (Australia). This watch list is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 November 2016.
The outlook for Canada through December indicates that, overall, the extent of exceptional water deficits will shrink, though a span across central Quebec will persist until March. Deficits of varying severity are forecast for most of Ontario and Quebec. Surpluses are forecast in the southwestern corner of Northern Ontario from Kenora north which are expected to persist through March. Surpluses are also forecast for southern British Columbia near Kamloops and the Peace Country region of Northeast British Columbia through March.