Exceptional water deficits are expected to decrease but will persist in many areas, including along Ontario’s eastern border. Surpluses are expected northwest of Toronto, and moderate deficits from Peterborough to Ottawa. In Quebec, deficits will be extreme around Sherbrooke. Severe deficits are forecast for southern Manitoba. Deficits will be intense in the Upper Athabasca and Lower Peace River Regions of Alberta, and surrounding Prince George, BC. Surpluses will increase in southern BC and will be exceptional around Kamloops and Kelowna.
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The forecast through April indicates water conditions much the same as in the prior three months, with some overall shrinkage of anomalies in the eastern half of the country. One notable difference is the emergence of widespread intense surplus conditions in southern British Columbia. After April, much of the eastern half of the country will transition to deficit, retaining exceptional deficits in eastern Quebec, central Quebec, and the central Quebec/Ontario border. Deficits in the western provinces will diminish slightly, and intense surpluses will persist in parts of southern BC.
The near-term forecast indicates a pattern of water anomalies much like the prior three months. Widespread surpluses will continue in northeastern Quebec, central Ontario, west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba, near Churchill Lake in Saskatchewan and into Alberta, the central border of Alberta and British Columbia, and southeastern BC. Deficit areas include: central Quebec and the Ontario/Quebec border; northwestern Ontario into central Manitoba; and southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan. After March, surpluses in Quebec and Ontario will transition to deficit.
While the forecast for Canada will remain a patchwork of water anomalies, the most noticeable difference in the near-term is the widespread emergence of surplus conditions in Quebec and the slight downgrade of deficits west of Hudson Bay. Surpluses may be extreme near Ottawa. Significant deficits are forecast through January or longer in Jamésie, Quebec; the northern border between Quebec and Ontario; the southeast and southwest shores of Hudson Bay; and northwestern Ontario into central Manitoba. After January near-normal water conditions are forecast for large portions of eastern Canada.
The near-term forecast through October indicates a significant retreat of exceptional water deficits in the Prairie Provinces. Deficits will persist in central Quebec and southern Newfoundland, and emerge east of the St. Lawrence River, in New Brunswick, and in southern Nova Scotia. Surpluses are expected to persist in central Manitoba west of Lake Winnipeg, a large block of northwestern Saskatchewan into Alberta, southeastern British Columbia, and near Ottawa and west of Toronto. After October conditions will continue to moderate, though some exceptional surpluses will persist.
Exceptional water surpluses in southern Ontario west of Toronto are forecast to persist through September, as are exceptional deficits in eastern Ontario and central Quebec. After September moderate drought conditions are expected to persist in northwest Ontario, northern Manitoba, and northern British Columbia. Recent exceptional surplus conditions in Manitoba west of Lake Winnipeg, and in northwestern Saskatchewan into Alberta are expected to continue throughout the forecast period into early 2018.
Pockets of exceptional water deficits affecting the eastern extents of Ontario and central Quebec are expected to persist in the near-term but subside by September. Recent exceptional surplus conditions in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta are expected to continue throughout the forecast period into early 2018. Conditions normalize over the remaining regions of Canada by the December through February 2018 period.
Water deficits of varying severity are expected through October in central and northern Quebec, Ontario, northeastern Manitoba, and northern British Columbia and Alberta. These deficits may be exceptional through July in Ontario along the border with Quebec and northeastern Manitoba, and through October across central Quebec. Moderate surpluses are forecast through October in southern Quebec. Surpluses reaching exceptional intensity are forecast through July in northeastern British Columbia; and through October from northwestern Saskatchewan into Ft. McMurray, Alberta, and northwest of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba.
Widespread severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast through September in much of Quebec, along its border into Ontario, around Hudson Bay in Manitoba, and in central and northwestern regions of Alberta and British Columbia. Large pockets of exceptional surpluses are expected to persist through June in southeastern British Columbia, northwestern Saskatchewan into Alberta, and in central Manitoba. These surpluses are expected to diminish after June.
The water forecast indicates deficits in: central Quebec and its southern border with Ontario; Northumberland County, New Brunswick; southern Newfoundland; northeastern Manitoba along Hudson Bay; northwestern British Columbia and central BC near Prince George; northwestern and central Alberta; northeastern Saskatchewan into northern Manitoba; and northwestern Ontario. Surpluses are forecast around the southern shore of James Bay and west into Ontario; west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba; surrounding Lake Churchill Saskatchewan; and scattered throughout southern British Columbia. After April predominantly deficit conditions are forecast.