The forecast through September indicates that moderate water surpluses will persist from Lake Huron to Toronto but surpluses in southern Quebec, including the Gatineau River Watershed and Montreal, will nearly disappear. Moderate to extreme deficits will persist in southern Manitoba. Exceptional deficits are expected in southern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, and surpluses in the southern Columbia Mountains.
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Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from April 2019 through March 2020 include: Suriname, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Cameroon, and New Caledonia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the central United States, Paraguay, Syria, northern Iraq, southern Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Tanzania, and southeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 9 July 2019
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that water surpluses will shrink in southern Quebec. Some surpluses are forecast near Toronto and Montreal, deficits from Regina to Winnipeg, and intense deficits in southern Vancouver Island. Exceptional deficits will persist along Ontario’s eastern border and in large pockets of Quebec, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. Surpluses will increase in Newfoundland and Labrador and persist in a large block spanning the northern Alberta-Saskatchewan border.
The forecast through July indicates that conditions from the westernmost point of the Ottawa River stretching east to the Gulf of St. Lawrence will transition out of exceptional water surplus to milder anomalies, while conditions around Montreal and near Ottawa transition to moderate surplus, and surpluses from Toronto to Lake Huron increase and intensify. Deficits will cover much of the nation, with intense deficits on Vancouver Island and surpluses in southeastern British Columbia.
The forecast through June indicates that exceptional deficits will retreat from Quebec’s Ottawa-Gatineau Watershed; surpluses in Northern Ontario will transition to deficit; and deficits in the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed in Alberta will become exceptional. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast across southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Intense surpluses will emerge in the Columbia River Basin in British Columbia, and deficits near Vancouver will persist but downgrade.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from November 2018 through October 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Finland, Latvia, Somalia, Angola, Iran, Thailand, Cambodia, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Kansas and Texas (US), Paraguay, Uruguay, Syria, Tanzania, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 8 February 2019.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from March 2018 through February 2019 include: southern Mexico, northern Brazil, North Africa, Europe, Afghanistan, and Southeast China. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Montana and Idaho (US), Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Spain, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 June 2018.
The near-term forecast through October indicates a significant retreat of exceptional water deficits in the Prairie Provinces. Deficits will persist in central Quebec and southern Newfoundland, and emerge east of the St. Lawrence River, in New Brunswick, and in southern Nova Scotia. Surpluses are expected to persist in central Manitoba west of Lake Winnipeg, a large block of northwestern Saskatchewan into Alberta, southeastern British Columbia, and near Ottawa and west of Toronto. After October conditions will continue to moderate, though some exceptional surpluses will persist.
Exceptional water surpluses in southern Ontario west of Toronto are forecast to persist through September, as are exceptional deficits in eastern Ontario and central Quebec. After September moderate drought conditions are expected to persist in northwest Ontario, northern Manitoba, and northern British Columbia. Recent exceptional surplus conditions in Manitoba west of Lake Winnipeg, and in northwestern Saskatchewan into Alberta are expected to continue throughout the forecast period into early 2018.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from April 2017 through March 2018 include: Brazil, Europe, northern Africa, Gabon, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Cambodia, South Korea, Tasmania, and Mongolia. Water surpluses are forecast for: the US Gulf Coast and Idaho, La Pampa (Argentina), western European Russia, eastern Romania, southeastern Tanzania, the Volga River Basin, between the Upper Ob and the Tom Rivers (Russia), Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, and the southern Yangtze River Basin. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 10 July 2017.