The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of October 2020 through September 2021 include: Brazil, Estonia, Egypt, Quebec (Canada), and the U.S. Southwest. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: China, Vietnam, southwestern India, and European Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 January 2021.
The Outlook for January 2021 indicates warmer than normal temperatures for Canada with exceptional anomalies in parts of the Northern Great Plains of Canada and the U.S. Temperatures will also be much warmer in South Asia around the Bay of Bengal. Wetter than normal conditions are forecast across the northern arc of South America from the Pacific to the Atlantic.
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