Though exceptional water surpluses will diminish through March, widespread and intense conditions will persist from Wisconsin through southern Minnesota, Iowa, eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central and eastern Texas. Surpluses along the Eastern Seaboard will also persist but moderate, while conditions in the Ohio River Valley normalize. In the western US, mild deficits are forecast punctuated by pockets of more intense anomalies, deficits as well as surpluses.
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Through February, widespread intense water surpluses will persist in the center of the country and in the east. Surpluses will cut a broad path from Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, passing through Iowa and reaching the eastern half of Texas. Surpluses are also forecast for the northern Ohio River Basin and in the east from southern New York through Florida’s Panhandle, and will be extreme in eastern Pennsylvania. Areas of deficit include: northern New York, northern Maine, southern Florida, northwestern Wyoming, Colorado, and western Oregon.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from September 2018 through August 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Chile, Finland, Albania, northern Africa, India, western Cambodia, and southeastern Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas and Pennsylvania (US), Paraguay, western Tanzania, Tomsk and Kemerovo (Russia), and Heilongjiang (China). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 December 2018.
The forecast through August indicates deficits in the Northeast, which could be exceptional in southern Maine. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast scattered from Virginia through Alabama, and covering nearly all of Florida. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for the Mississippi River Basin. Intense deficits are forecast for western Colorado, northern Utah, western Oregon, western Washington, and southernmost Texas. Primarily moderate deficits are expected in California. Surpluses will diminish in Idaho and downgrade slightly from exceptional in Montana.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from January 2018 through December 2018 include: the US Southwest, Brazil, southern Venezuela, northern Africa, Gabon, Zambia, Finland, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Idaho, southern British Columbia, Tanzania, Hungary, southern Romania, and Ukraine. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 April 2018.
Water deficits in the Southwest and Southern California will moderate overall in the near-term. Intense deficits will spread in Missouri, persist in northern Louisiana and central Mississippi into central Alabama, and emerge in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. Surpluses are forecast for Idaho, western Montana, southern Wyoming, central Nebraska, Minnesota into Wisconsin, and Michigan. After March, primarily moderate deficits will continue to emerge from California to North Carolina, and surpluses are forecast for Idaho, western Montana, northwestern Wyoming, and along the Columbia, Missouri, and Yellowstone Rivers.
Widespread water deficits are forecast in much of the eastern half of the US through December and may be exceptional in the Virginias and Pennsylvania. Moderate to exceptional surpluses are predicted in central Minnesota. Surpluses will continue to emerge in northwestern Wisconsin, the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Florida, and Idaho and its neighbors. After December deficits in the East are expected to diminish, but intense deficits will persist in the Carolinas and southern Louisiana. Intense surpluses will continue to emerge in much of Minnesota.
Exceptional water surplus conditions spanning the Pacific northwestern states of Washington, Oregon and Idaho are expected to moderate in the near-term. Moderate surpluses are expected to develop along the central Gulf Coast and extend up the Mississippi Basin through the forecast period, settling over the northern Great Plains states by early 2018. Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast to develop over most of Alaska and moderate but persist throughout the forecast period.
The forecast for the next three months shows a significant reduction in the extent and severity of water deficits in the Ohio River Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, the Deep South, and South Atlantic states. Parts of New England will transition from deficit to moderate surplus. Surpluses are forecast in the northern half of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula, Wisconsin, and Iowa, southern Missouri, southern Kansas, northeastern Oklahoma, and southern Colorado. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are forecast in Idaho and surrounding states, and surpluses of generally lesser severity are expected in California’s northern two-thirds.
Severe to exceptional water deficits will continue to emerge in the South and South Atlantic states through September, with moderate deficits in the Northeast and in the Ohio River Valley, though deficits are expected to diminish somewhat in severity after June. Moderate deficits may emerge on the Arkansas and Colorado Rivers and moderate to severe deficits in northern Colorado from June through September. Exceptional surpluses are forecast to persist in Idaho through June, along with surpluses of varying intensity in the Pacific Northwest and California. After June the extent and severity of these surpluses is forecast to diminish.