The forecast through August 2019 indicates persistent water surpluses in a wide path through the center of the country in the Mississippi River Basin and well into the Missouri, Arkansas, and Red River Basins, including exceptional anomalies in South Dakota. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the Rockies, central Arizona, California, Oregon, and in the Northeast. Deficits are forecast for pockets of Washington, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and southeastern states.
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The forecast through June indicates that deficits will diminish and downgrade in the South Atlantic States, retreat considerably in the Gulf States, downgrade to moderate in the Southern Plains States, persist with intensity in the Southwest, and shrink in central California. Surpluses are forecast for Idaho, Montana, western Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, and along the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers. Surpluses will be exceptional in Idaho and Montana. Surpluses in the Ohio River Valley will diminish. After June, anomalies will downgrade, but persist.
After July the Northern Plains States should see a significant retreat of exceptional water deficits. Surpluses will persist in the Gulf region, diminish in the Great Lakes States, and transition to mild deficits in Virginia and North Carolina. After October moderate water surpluses will re-emerge in most of the Great Lakes States and in the Ohio River Valley, and pockets of surplus will continue to emerge in Idaho and surrounding states. Deficits in the southern states of the East Coast are expected to ratchet up slightly to moderate intensity and emerge in Florida.
The near-term forecast through September shows a distribution pattern of water anomalies similar to the prior three months with some decrease in intensity. However, surpluses are forecast to increase in the central Gulf Coast. Beyond September water anomalies will continue to become less severe, though pockets of exceptional surplus will persist in Idaho and its neighbors. The forecast through March 2018 indicates the emergence of primarily moderate surpluses in many parts of the country.
United States: Water deficits to emerge this Spring in Ohio, lower Mississippi Valleys, then upper Mississippi & Northwest
Overall, widespread moderate to exceptional water deficits are forecast for Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan, and much of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Surpluses are forecast for the Southern Plains and southern Florida. In April and May deficits are forecast for much of the country east of the Mississippi, and will emerge thereafter across the North, in the Central Plains, Northern Great Plains, and in the West, tracing paths along many major rivers. Though decreasing in severity, widespread deficits will persist through November.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, US; southern Mexico; northern Brazil; Mediterranean Europe; Finland and Estonia; coastal West Africa; western Turkey; Yemen; and Southeast Asia. Significant water surpluses are forecast for: the Southern Plains and southern Florida, US; northwestern Mexico; central Argentina; Ireland; Kenya; central Kazakhstan; Java; and southeast China. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 March 2016.
United States: Water deficits to emerge this Spring in Ohio and lower Mississippi Valleys first, then Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and throughout the Northeast.
Widespread moderate to extreme deficits are forecast for Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan, much of the Mississippi Valley, and New England. Surpluses are forecast for the Southern Plains, east Texas, and southern Florida. Both deficits and surpluses are expected in in the Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Southeast.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: much of Canada, the Mississippi Valley, US; southern Mexico; northern Brazil; Mediterranean Europe; Finland and Estonia; North Africa, coastal West Africa, southern Africa; western Turkey; and Southeast Asia. Significant water surpluses are forecast for: the Southern Plains, US; central Argentina; Ireland and the United Kingdom; Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania; southeast India; central Russia; southeast China; and northwestern Australia. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 February 2016.