The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of July 2021 through June 2022 include: the U.S. West, Canada, Venezuela, Chile, North Africa, Central Asia, and Hokkaido, Japan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: China, Nepal, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 October 2021.
While the October 2021 forecast indicates hotter than normal temperatures in many regions, Nigeria stands out with both exceptionally hotter and exceptionally drier conditions. Notable also is Quebec, Canada, where most of the province’s vast expanse will be exceptionally hotter. Beijing, China and the surrounding region will be much wetter than normal.
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