Exceptional deficits throughout the Middle East will decrease in size, but remain present in several regions. 

Surpluses in the Sahel and southern Africa will continue. Exceptional deficits in northern and central Africa will diminish in size, but remain in northwestern countries and near the Gulf of Guinea. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected to continue throughout central and eastern Europe. Surpluses will resolve in most of western Europe, but will remain in Spain, Portugal, and Norway. 

The forecast for May 2025 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2025 through January 2026 in northwestern and central Africa, the Middle East, Europe, Brazil, and northwestern to southeastern China. Areas expected to experience surplus include central and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, and portions of the Amazon rainforest.

In this installment of the Proof Point series, we detail current weather-related events affecting the Amazon rainforest and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts. 

Each month, ISciences reports on significant weather events occurring throughout the world and analyze how accurately our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) predicted them. In this series, we highlight the most severe global weather events which occurred during the month of April, and discuss the extent of their impact on the affected regions.

Exceptional deficits will remain in northwestern China, while regions of the Yangtze River Basin will observe an expansion of exceptional deficits across the region.