Exceptional deficits throughout the Middle East will decrease in size, but remain present in several regions.
Surpluses in the Sahel and southern Africa will continue. Exceptional deficits in northern and central Africa will diminish in size, but remain in northwestern countries and near the Gulf of Guinea.
Severe to exceptional deficits are expected to continue throughout central and eastern Europe. Surpluses will resolve in most of western Europe, but will remain in Spain, Portugal, and Norway.
The forecast for May 2025 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2025 through January 2026 in northwestern and central Africa, the Middle East, Europe, Brazil, and northwestern to southeastern China. Areas expected to experience surplus include central and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, and portions of the Amazon rainforest.
The forecast through September indicates mild water deficits in much of Australia with more intense anomalies in Tasmania, surrounding Melbourne, in the eastern Murray-Darling Basin, and reaching north to the Darling Downs and Brisbane. In New Zealand, deficits are forecast on North Island. Extreme to exceptional deficits will persist in New Caledonia.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates a transition away from widespread, exceptional water deficits in Australia to, overall, mild deficits or normal conditions. However, intense deficits are forecast for Tasmania, the southern tip of Western Australia, northern New Zealand, and New Caledonia. Moderate to severe deficits are expected from Brisbane to Canberra.
The forecast through April indicates that the intense water deficits that have dominated many parts of Australia in prior months will nearly disappear. However, severe to exceptional deficits will persist in Tasmania; along Victoria’s coast; in northwestern New South Wales and the eastern portion of the Lake Eyre drainage basin; and in the Blackwood River region in the tip of Western Australia.
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