The ISciences Global Water Monitor and Forecast Watch List provides monthly reports of data collected by our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM), which monitors and forecasts water anomalies on a global basis.
The forecast for April 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of January 2024 through December 2024 in South America, northeastern Africa, and the Middle East. Areas expected to experience surplus include eastern to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern regions of China, but lessen in size in northern and northeastern China. Surpluses occurring in Tibet are also expected to remain but diminish in size.
The forecast indicates that deficits will persist throughout Mainland Southeast Asia, but decrease in intensity, becoming mostly moderate to severe anomalies. Intense surplus is expected to expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia, particularly in central Indonesia, Papua, and Papua New Guinea.
Moderate water deficits, punctuated by more intense pockets, are expected across much of Victoria and New South Wales (NSW) and across northwestern and northern Australia. Areas of intense deficit include: the southwestern tip of Western Australia; from Melbourne through Canberra past Sydney; and, near Darwin and the Daly River region of Northern Territory. Generally mild deficits are expected in New Zealand. Deficits in New Caledonia will be intense.
Moderate water deficits, punctuated by more intense pockets, are expected across a large portion of the east and southeast including the Murray-Darling Basin, scattered across the north, and in the southwest tip of the country. Deficits are expected to be intense in Tasmania, pockets along the southeast coast, the southwest tip, Darwin and the Daly River region, and along the southern shore of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Intense deficits are forecast for New Caledonia.
Exceptional water deficits that have dominated southern Australia are expected to disappear, but deficits are forecast for northern Australia, the southwest, the southeast, and Tasmania. These deficits may be intense in Tasmania and in pockets of other aforementioned areas. Moderate deficits are expected along the Darling, Lachlan, and Macquarie Rivers in New South Wales. Surpluses will shrink but persist in the Mackenzie River region of Queensland and in southwest Kimberley region of Western Australia.
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