The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through October indicates that widespread water surpluses will persist in the region from southeastern Turkey through northern Iraq into northwestern Iran and along the southern shore of the Caspian Sea. Some areas of previous surplus will begin to transition as deficits emerge. Intense deficits are forecast for central Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, moderate to severe deficits in Georgia, and primarily moderate deficits in pockets of western Turkey including Ankara.
The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably, retreating from the Shandong Peninsula, the North China Plain, and Yunnan. Surpluses in southeastern China will remain widespread and the extent of exceptional anomalies will shift east, affecting Fujian, Jiangxi, and northern Guangxi. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for pockets of the Korean Peninsula. Deficits in northern Japan are expected to shrink and downgrade somewhat.
The forecast through October indicates that water surpluses will intensify in the Northern European Plain in Russia and will persist in the Ob River Basin. Deficits are forecast along the central coasts of the Gulf of Ob, and in the regions of the Nizhnyaya Tunguska and the Podkamennaya Tunguska Rivers. Surpluses are forecast in western and eastern Uzbekistan, northern and western Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and central Tajikistan.
The forecast through October indicates normal water conditions for many parts of India as deficits nearly disappear. Surpluses are forecast in the far north and northeast, the western Gangetic Plain, Rajasthan, along Gujarat’s northern border, and southeastern Maharashtra. Widespread surpluses will persist across central Afghanistan, in northern Pakistan and along rivers, in central Nepal, and throughout Bangladesh.
The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably in Thailand, and surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. Surpluses in Myanmar will remain intense in the west and south. Severe deficits will emerge in Malaysia and Indonesia.
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